That race still sent a message. I think I heard that it is like a Republican +15 district.beantownbubba wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:06 amThe surprise possibility that Lauren Boebert might lose was perhaps the most delicious moment of all the stories coming out of the election. It looks like it's not going to happen (speaking of slow vote counting!) but oh my, what might have been. Especially if the Dems had been smarter about where they spent their money (see also WI Senate, Ohio Senate ...)
The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
Moderators: Jonicont, mark lynn, Maluca3, Tequila Cowboy, BigTom, CooleyGirl, olwiggum
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
-
- Posts: 7894
- Joined: Sat May 15, 2010 9:51 am
- Location: Little Rock, Arkansaw
- Contact:
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
Arizona has been called for Kelly, so I'll say enough was spent there.beantownbubba wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:06 pmThe "to" is fairly easy: WI and OH most obviously. I think AZ was well funded but more couldn't have hurt. Where that money should have come from I have not looked at.John A Arkansawyer wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 6:28 pmI'm curious what spending you'd've moved around for the Senate.beantownbubba wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:06 amEspecially if the Dems had been smarter about where they spent their money (see also WI Senate, Ohio Senate ...)
This was a pretty remarkable election, one of the best midterms for the party in power in history. The Democrats are likely to keep the Senate, and would keep the House if it weren't for Cuomo's judges knocking down the New York redistricting plan. They might still keep it anyway.
The sooner we put those assholes in the grave&piss on the dirt above it, the better off we'll be
-
- Posts: 21823
- Joined: Fri Apr 02, 2010 10:52 am
- Location: Trying to stay focused on the righteous path
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
Obviously I’m not there. Just going by what I’ve heard and read.Zip City wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:35 pmI can't imagine Tim Ryan having MORE ads in Ohio than he did. They were on constantlybeantownbubba wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:06 pmThe "to" is fairly easy: WI and OH most obviously. I think AZ was well funded but more couldn't have hurt. Where that money should have come from I have not looked at.John A Arkansawyer wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 6:28 pm
I'm curious what spending you'd've moved around for the Senate.
All opinions and commentary in my posts are solely my own and are made in my personal capacity.
-
- Posts: 21823
- Joined: Fri Apr 02, 2010 10:52 am
- Location: Trying to stay focused on the righteous path
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
Message sent, but what will she/they hear? What I read is that Borbert’s district is partially new but the gerrymandering resulted in a district that went for Trump in 2020 by 8% more than the original district. It wouldn’t be surprising if the original district was at least +7 for Trump so that seems reasonably consistent.jr29 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 12, 2022 8:08 amThat race still sent a message. I think I heard that it is like a Republican +15 district.beantownbubba wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:06 amThe surprise possibility that Lauren Boebert might lose was perhaps the most delicious moment of all the stories coming out of the election. It looks like it's not going to happen (speaking of slow vote counting!) but oh my, what might have been. Especially if the Dems had been smarter about where they spent their money (see also WI Senate, Ohio Senate ...)
All opinions and commentary in my posts are solely my own and are made in my personal capacity.
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
I have the same question.beantownbubba wrote: ↑Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:20 amMessage sent, but what will she/they hear? What I read is that Borbert’s district is partially new but the gerrymandering resulted in a district that went for Trump in 2020 by 8% more than the original district. It wouldn’t be surprising if the original district was at least +7 for Trump so that seems reasonably consistent.jr29 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 12, 2022 8:08 amThat race still sent a message. I think I heard that it is like a Republican +15 district.beantownbubba wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:06 amThe surprise possibility that Lauren Boebert might lose was perhaps the most delicious moment of all the stories coming out of the election. It looks like it's not going to happen (speaking of slow vote counting!) but oh my, what might have been. Especially if the Dems had been smarter about where they spent their money (see also WI Senate, Ohio Senate ...)
I hope some of these shitheads realize that a majority of us want calm. Let's bitch and moan about entitlements, but stop the machine gunning of vitriol.
BTW, Smokin' Joe Biden keeps having an incredibly successful unsuccessful presidency.
-
- Posts: 7894
- Joined: Sat May 15, 2010 9:51 am
- Location: Little Rock, Arkansaw
- Contact:
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
I just saw a number that surprised me greatly: The total popular vote for the House is led by Republicans, 52 million to 47 million. That's a lot. I'm not sure what it means (other than nothing electorally).
The sooner we put those assholes in the grave&piss on the dirt above it, the better off we'll be
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
I heard that the reason for that has a lot to do with the number of Republican incumbents who ran unopposed.John A Arkansawyer wrote: ↑Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:38 amI just saw a number that surprised me greatly: The total popular vote for the House is led by Republicans, 52 million to 47 million. That's a lot. I'm not sure what it means (other than nothing electorally).
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
Here's a piece from a couple months ago. Republicans had a big advantage in unopposed races and races with no major party opposition. Add that to the fact that they will gain seats and you have your popular vote disparity.jr29 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:42 amI heard that the reason for that has a lot to do with the number of Republican incumbents who ran unopposed.John A Arkansawyer wrote: ↑Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:38 amI just saw a number that surprised me greatly: The total popular vote for the House is led by Republicans, 52 million to 47 million. That's a lot. I'm not sure what it means (other than nothing electorally).
https://www.270towin.com/news/2022/09/1 ... _1419.html
-
- Posts: 21823
- Joined: Fri Apr 02, 2010 10:52 am
- Location: Trying to stay focused on the righteous path
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
A different take on money in political campaigns:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... 00007F7AB9
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... 00007F7AB9
All opinions and commentary in my posts are solely my own and are made in my personal capacity.
-
- Posts: 21823
- Joined: Fri Apr 02, 2010 10:52 am
- Location: Trying to stay focused on the righteous path
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
Now that control of the Senate is a non-issue in Georgia, does Herschel Walker's bid go down in flames because the reality of Walker's lack of qualifications is no longer outweighed by broader concerns, or does the lowered intensity/impact of the race change voters calculations in other as yet unforeseen ways? I assume the former but am always leery of the conventional wisdom. Luckily we won't have to wait too long to find out and by then, who knows?, we may even have the full House results.
All opinions and commentary in my posts are solely my own and are made in my personal capacity.
-
- Posts: 7894
- Joined: Sat May 15, 2010 9:51 am
- Location: Little Rock, Arkansaw
- Contact:
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
How many Georgia Republicans held their nose to keep the Senate? How many of them won't bother with the lower stakes? On the other hand, getting Warnock in means you only have to convince Manchin OR Sinema and not BOTH of them to do business. That's so much easier, and so worth voting for.beantownbubba wrote: ↑Sun Nov 13, 2022 9:13 amNow that control of the Senate is a non-issue in Georgia, does Herschel Walker's bid go down in flames because the reality of Walker's lack of qualifications is no longer outweighed by broader concerns, or does the lowered intensity/impact of the race change voters calculations in other as yet unforeseen ways? I assume the former but am always leery of the conventional wisdom. Luckily we won't have to wait too long to find out and by then, who knows?, we may even have the full House results.
The sooner we put those assholes in the grave&piss on the dirt above it, the better off we'll be
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
And getting Warnock in means a very difficult map in 2024 is a bit less difficult. Dems don't need to let off the accelerator right now.John A Arkansawyer wrote: ↑Sun Nov 13, 2022 9:53 amHow many Georgia Republicans held their nose to keep the Senate? How many of them won't bother with the lower stakes? On the other hand, getting Warnock in means you only have to convince Manchin OR Sinema and not BOTH of them to do business. That's so much easier, and so worth voting for.beantownbubba wrote: ↑Sun Nov 13, 2022 9:13 amNow that control of the Senate is a non-issue in Georgia, does Herschel Walker's bid go down in flames because the reality of Walker's lack of qualifications is no longer outweighed by broader concerns, or does the lowered intensity/impact of the race change voters calculations in other as yet unforeseen ways? I assume the former but am always leery of the conventional wisdom. Luckily we won't have to wait too long to find out and by then, who knows?, we may even have the full House results.
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
Absolutely. They set money on fire in FL in an unwinnable race. WI was definitely in reach with more boots on the ground.beantownbubba wrote: ↑Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:06 amThe surprise possibility that Lauren Boebert might lose was perhaps the most delicious moment of all the stories coming out of the election. It looks like it's not going to happen (speaking of slow vote counting!) but oh my, what might have been. Especially if the Dems had been smarter about where they spent their money (see also WI Senate, Ohio Senate ...)
Hell, they would have kept the house if they didn't botch the NY map. Maloney losing is comical, though.
Wound up bleeding on the bar floor
We don't bet on the ball no more
We don't bet on the ball no more
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
I'm optimistic about GA. The voters there must be deeply fatigued, and I feel sorry for them. But - Herschel is Trump's guy and I'm not sure how much the GOP will allow Walker to be tied to him during the run off. Additionally, the R voters don't have a compelling reason to fight the fatigue and show up as the Senate is decided. Oh, I guess you could also add in that Herschel is potentially one of the worst Senate candidates ever fielded.beantownbubba wrote: ↑Sun Nov 13, 2022 9:13 amNow that control of the Senate is a non-issue in Georgia, does Herschel Walker's bid go down in flames because the reality of Walker's lack of qualifications is no longer outweighed by broader concerns, or does the lowered intensity/impact of the race change voters calculations in other as yet unforeseen ways? I assume the former but am always leery of the conventional wisdom. Luckily we won't have to wait too long to find out and by then, who knows?, we may even have the full House results.
Love each other, Motherfuckers!
-
- Posts: 21823
- Joined: Fri Apr 02, 2010 10:52 am
- Location: Trying to stay focused on the righteous path
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
Earlier this week in the WaPo Erik Wemple raised the very good question, whatever happened to all that talk about the problems w/ Democratic messaging? I was one of the many people raising concerns about that messaging.John A Arkansawyer wrote: ↑Sat Nov 12, 2022 8:37 amArizona has been called for Kelly, so I'll say enough was spent there.
But just like the question of whether the Dems spent enough money in AZ, the question of whether their messaging is on target and all it could be is not answerable solely by looking to the results. Sure we can conclude that the amount spent or the nature of the messaging was not as bad as all that, but that's not the same as saying it was good or as good as it might have been. I don't know how many incremental votes would have been captured per additional dollar spent in AZ, and I don't know if it's calculable, but I will go out on a small limb and say that better messaging* would have given the Dems even better results over the range of contested races. Can I prove it? No. But I believe it. And I think it's ok to believe that while acknowledging that the messaging must have been better than I thought.*
* I have also become increasingly aware that my characterization of or conclusions about Democratic messaging are way too second hand because I see so little first hand actual "messaging" in the virtual one party Commonwealth of MA. I"m gonna try to work on that.
All opinions and commentary in my posts are solely my own and are made in my personal capacity.
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
Hopefully this drives a stake into the foul & evil heart of the Republican party & that whatever rises from the ashes is at least somewhat reasonable.
https://www.tampafp.com/former-presiden ... ouncement/
https://www.tampafp.com/former-presiden ... ouncement/
-
- Posts: 21823
- Joined: Fri Apr 02, 2010 10:52 am
- Location: Trying to stay focused on the righteous path
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
I don't doubt that Trump's announcement, especially following on the heels of the Red Trickle, will be a watershed moment. The question is, which way or ways will it go? One possibility is that we finally get a real third party but the lineup is soft left Dems, traditional never Trump conservatives and MAGA with or w/out Trump (and no real centrist party of the kind Andrew Yang and Christine Todd Whitman are trying to jumpstart). Which of the latter two groups keeps the title, organization and history (the party of Lincoln!) of the "Republican Party" might be an interesting fight in itself. As always when Trump is involved, it's going to be a wild ride.chuckrh wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 6:31 amHopefully this drives a stake into the foul & evil heart of the Republican party & that whatever rises from the ashes is at least somewhat reasonable.
https://www.tampafp.com/former-presiden ... ouncement/
The Speaker of the House election is shaping up to be an interesting development as well. Will the Dems maintain a solid wall against McCarthy, forcing him to get all 218 votes from the GOP and will he get them? What if nobody gets a majority? On the Senate side, while it seems highly unlikely, I do hope Scott replaces McConnell. McConnell is a way more formidable foe. However it goes, all of it will be part of the remaking of the Republican Party and the law of unintended consequences will no doubt play a part.
In a related development, the media seems to be noting that the media is treating Trump much more harshly this time around, with several outlets describing his announcement as the candidacy of the guy who attempted to retain power despite losing the election and fomenting an insurrection to achieve that goal, or words to that effect. One can only hope this represents a real change in the way the media covers Trump. And of course it will be very interesting to see what Fox including Hannity, Ingraham and Carlson do now that Murdoch has publicly distanced himself from Trump.
All opinions and commentary in my posts are solely my own and are made in my personal capacity.
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
Related to your last graph re: the media, I thought this was good:
https://www.readtpa.com/p/message-of-th ... dium=email
https://www.readtpa.com/p/message-of-th ... dium=email
Wound up bleeding on the bar floor
We don't bet on the ball no more
We don't bet on the ball no more
-
- Posts: 21823
- Joined: Fri Apr 02, 2010 10:52 am
- Location: Trying to stay focused on the righteous path
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
All opinions and commentary in my posts are solely my own and are made in my personal capacity.
-
- Posts: 21823
- Joined: Fri Apr 02, 2010 10:52 am
- Location: Trying to stay focused on the righteous path
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
Is it worth it to try to parse any Trump's grammar for the "real" meaning? Probably not. Nonetheless I was intrigued by Ivanka saying that she would not be involved in politics and would not work on her father's campaign, but she "will always be proud of many of our Administration's accomplishments." I think most people would say they are proud of the many accomplishments of the Administration, so is she saying that there are some accomplishments of which she's not proud? I suspect i'm overthinking this, but it I do find it amusing.
All opinions and commentary in my posts are solely my own and are made in my personal capacity.
-
- Posts: 21823
- Joined: Fri Apr 02, 2010 10:52 am
- Location: Trying to stay focused on the righteous path
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
All opinions and commentary in my posts are solely my own and are made in my personal capacity.
-
- Posts: 21823
- Joined: Fri Apr 02, 2010 10:52 am
- Location: Trying to stay focused on the righteous path
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
Fact: Originalism makes you stupid. These aren't all the reasons that's true, but it sure as hell makes the point. (For those who don't memorize all my posts, I"ve been saying forever that originalism is a made up fantasy w/out basis in fact, law or history.)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... 00007F7AB9
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... 00007F7AB9
All opinions and commentary in my posts are solely my own and are made in my personal capacity.
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
Elon Musk started a poll on Twitter to vote whether Trump should be reinstated.
You’ll never guess what happened next…
You’ll never guess what happened next…
And I knew when I woke up Rock N Roll would be here forever
-
- Posts: 21823
- Joined: Fri Apr 02, 2010 10:52 am
- Location: Trying to stay focused on the righteous path
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
Classic Trump moment in the making:
Trump vowed to post exclusively on truth social. Can he turn down access to the much larger twitter audience and the accompanying attention? Presumably not. So then what happens to truth social without trump, or even w/out trump exclusively? Wait for it... another failed Trump business.
Last edited by beantownbubba on Sun Nov 20, 2022 11:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
All opinions and commentary in my posts are solely my own and are made in my personal capacity.
-
- Posts: 21823
- Joined: Fri Apr 02, 2010 10:52 am
- Location: Trying to stay focused on the righteous path
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
Virginia
Idaho
Colorado
Madness
Idaho
Colorado
Madness
All opinions and commentary in my posts are solely my own and are made in my personal capacity.
- tinnitus photography
- Posts: 7271
- Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:49 pm
- Contact:
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
tinnitus photography wrote: ↑Sun Nov 20, 2022 11:47 amso far he claims he's not interested
https://www.reuters.com/technology/musk ... 022-11-20/
he's contractually tied to Truth Social on an exclusive deal. Once he figures out how to wiggle out of that contract, he'll be back
And I knew when I woke up Rock N Roll would be here forever
- tinnitus photography
- Posts: 7271
- Joined: Mon Apr 26, 2010 6:49 pm
- Contact:
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
lol that's terrific. you know he's dying to tweet.
-
- Posts: 21823
- Joined: Fri Apr 02, 2010 10:52 am
- Location: Trying to stay focused on the righteous path
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
"the Reps will take the House but only at the level of, say, +10 and the Senate will be a matter of +/- 1 in either direction. "
I'd say I did pretty well: The House ended up 222 R to 213 D which is a difference of 9 and which represents an increase in 10 seats by the Republicans. The Senate will either remain 50/50 or be 51/49 for the Democrats.
Nice to see Judge Aileen Cannon of Mar a Lago documents fame get her comeuppance. In the context of judicial opinions, she got her ass reamed and hung out to dry by the 11th Circuit in a way virtually never seen. Totally deserved, but it's still nice to see the right outcome every once in a while. IIRC we had a brief discussion of whether she would care. I don't see how anybody could not, but then again I don't see how anyone could have made the decisions she did. I wonder if it's possible to seek recusal of a judge on the grounds of general corruption (i.e. not related to the specific case) because I don't know how anyone can try a case in front of her w/ a straight face, nor do I see how she can try to act "judicial," command respect and discharge the duties of her office in the ordinary course as if this never happened.
I'd say I did pretty well: The House ended up 222 R to 213 D which is a difference of 9 and which represents an increase in 10 seats by the Republicans. The Senate will either remain 50/50 or be 51/49 for the Democrats.
Nice to see Judge Aileen Cannon of Mar a Lago documents fame get her comeuppance. In the context of judicial opinions, she got her ass reamed and hung out to dry by the 11th Circuit in a way virtually never seen. Totally deserved, but it's still nice to see the right outcome every once in a while. IIRC we had a brief discussion of whether she would care. I don't see how anybody could not, but then again I don't see how anyone could have made the decisions she did. I wonder if it's possible to seek recusal of a judge on the grounds of general corruption (i.e. not related to the specific case) because I don't know how anyone can try a case in front of her w/ a straight face, nor do I see how she can try to act "judicial," command respect and discharge the duties of her office in the ordinary course as if this never happened.
All opinions and commentary in my posts are solely my own and are made in my personal capacity.
Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit
Anecdotally, what are some you seeing regarding inflation and its effect on folks going out and spending ?
I buy groceries and I buy gas and diesel, so I know prices are up but I don't see it reflected in people's lifestyles. I follow stock car racing and the series that I follow have seen record crowds all year. These are overwhelmingly conservative, blue collar people and they are coming out in droves. I haven't been to many shows in the last year, but I see lots of packed rooms on social media. Two of my neighbors have bought brand new cars in the past year.
I could go on, but I think ya'll get the point.
Any thoughts ?
I buy groceries and I buy gas and diesel, so I know prices are up but I don't see it reflected in people's lifestyles. I follow stock car racing and the series that I follow have seen record crowds all year. These are overwhelmingly conservative, blue collar people and they are coming out in droves. I haven't been to many shows in the last year, but I see lots of packed rooms on social media. Two of my neighbors have bought brand new cars in the past year.
I could go on, but I think ya'll get the point.
Any thoughts ?