This forum is for talking about non-music-related stuff that the DBT fanbase might be interested in. This is not the place for inside jokes and BS. Take that crap to some other board.
cortez the killer wrote:Question for the Libertarians. What do you think the government should do in the time of a pandemic? Are you opposed to authorities ordering the closing of schools, businesses, bars, restaurants, etc?
I am not a Libertarian, though I do have libertarian tendencies. The capitol L matters. Local authorities making tough decisions
is entirely understandable. The further up the chain you go, the increased distance from those affected makes for poor decisions.
By the time you get to the feds, it is all grandstanding and political posturing. In the end, as always, we have to take care of ourselves,
family, friends, and community.
So I'm reading The Boy Who Never Grew Up, one in a series of mysteries by David Handler. This one's from 1992. The tone/style of the books is irreverent, snarky, and what we today would call hipsterish (not sure what the equivalent term was back then). The most striking thing in the book is how TWICE in the first 50 or so pages the author takes swipes at Donald Trump, portraying him in just a few tangential words as a clown, a loser, a chump, an example of what one doesn't want to be. That's exactly what I remember about that time. How he went from there to President is an incredible, almost literally unbelievable tale which I guess goes directly through The Apprentice. Shaking my head.
What used to be is gone and what ought to be ought not to be so hard
So the markets clearly know that a cut in interest rates and other actions taken to support liquidity in the banking system are virtually irrelevant to what's happening in "the real economy." So why don't Trump and Mnuchin get it? I'd say the market's response is not just a rejection of the adequacy of the Administration's response to the coronovirus crisis but also a loud and clear vote of no confidence in Trump, Mnuchin and the "team" they lead. Unfortunately and as always it will be we the people who pay the price for breakdowns at the top.
What used to be is gone and what ought to be ought not to be so hard
beantownbubba wrote:So the markets clearly know that a cut in interest rates and other actions taken to support liquidity in the banking system are virtually irrelevant to what's happening in "the real economy." So why don't Trump and Mnuchin get it? I'd say the market's response is not just a rejection of the adequacy of the Administration's response to the coronovirus crisis but also a loud and clear vote of no confidence in Trump, Mnuchin and the "team" they lead. Unfortunately and as always it will be we the people who pay the price for breakdowns at the top.
Even Trumpers have to be hesitant to actually trust Trump these days. He has given so little useful information. Even the media seems to be starting to ignore/bypass him.
beantownbubba wrote:So the markets clearly know that a cut in interest rates and other actions taken to support liquidity in the banking system are virtually irrelevant to what's happening in "the real economy." So why don't Trump and Mnuchin get it? I'd say the market's response is not just a rejection of the adequacy of the Administration's response to the coronovirus crisis but also a loud and clear vote of no confidence in Trump, Mnuchin and the "team" they lead. Unfortunately and as always it will be we the people who pay the price for breakdowns at the top.
Even Trumpers have to be hesitant to actually trust Trump these days. He has given so little useful information. Even the media seems to be starting to ignore/bypass him.
Governors and Mayors (thankfully!) have been ignoring/bypassing him, too. Wonder if he will continue his threats to cut funding to their states and localities. It was really nice to see that the federal government was able to host a day of prayer yesterday, though. Probably bought us a few weeks and saved countless lives.
You are entitled to your opinion, but you are not entitled to your own facts.
- DPM
good article. think i put it up on the plague thread yesterday but its worth having in more than 1 spot. watched the debate last night. uncle Joe the used car dealer. never trust anyone who spends that much on haircuts. I feel sorry for Bernie. the fix was in just like 4 years ago. if not for the virus, i think Trump would beat Biden handily. maybe the one ok thing to come out of the virus madness is getting Trump out of office. of course, he may declare martial law before then & set up a royal succession with Ivanka/Jared next in line.
I disagree with Gov. DeWine on most everything (politically), but he has been a great example of leadership during this pandemic. He has Ohio out ahead of most other states in terms of readiness and prevention, not waiting for guidance from Cheeto-in-Chief
And I knew when I woke up Rock N Roll would be here forever
It's physics in action: Nature abhors a vacuum. Luckily the people stepping up to fill it appear to be many lumens brighter than the black hole that is Trump. Yeah I mixed my metaphors. So sue me.
What used to be is gone and what ought to be ought not to be so hard
Zip City wrote:I disagree with Gov. DeWine on most everything (politically), but he has been a great example of leadership during this pandemic. He has Ohio out ahead of most other states in terms of readiness and prevention, not waiting for guidance from Cheeto-in-Chief
Nineteen plus years ago in NYC...
You are entitled to your opinion, but you are not entitled to your own facts.
- DPM
Zip City wrote:I disagree with Gov. DeWine on most everything (politically), but he has been a great example of leadership during this pandemic. He has Ohio out ahead of most other states in terms of readiness and prevention, not waiting for guidance from Cheeto-in-Chief
Nineteen plus years ago in NYC...
I don't get your point. What does 9/11 have to do with pandemic readiness/response?
And I knew when I woke up Rock N Roll would be here forever
Zip City wrote:I disagree with Gov. DeWine on most everything (politically), but he has been a great example of leadership during this pandemic. He has Ohio out ahead of most other states in terms of readiness and prevention, not waiting for guidance from Cheeto-in-Chief
Nineteen plus years ago in NYC...
I don't get your point. What does 9/11 have to do with pandemic readiness/response?
A mayor whose politics you may not line up (Giuliani) with doing a good job leading during a time of crisis.
You are entitled to your opinion, but you are not entitled to your own facts.
- DPM
Zip City wrote:I disagree with Gov. DeWine on most everything (politically), but he has been a great example of leadership during this pandemic. He has Ohio out ahead of most other states in terms of readiness and prevention, not waiting for guidance from Cheeto-in-Chief
I'm from Ohio and I second this, he's done a great job getting in front of this thing, for sure.
I'm going to cross post some of my FB posts of recent days just to see if we can get some conversation going. Call it my contribution to killing time for the stuck at home. They're in chronological order. Some of them clearly are responding to others' comments or the day's events but I think the meaning/context is clear enough. This one is from 19 March:
So emergency legislation to address the virus fall out has turned into a corporate tax cut. Shocking, isn't it? Moscow Mitch McConnell is a menace to society. Lock him up. Vote him out.
Just as an aside, I wonder if MMM knows that if companies don't make as much money or lose money as a result of the virus, they will pay less in taxes?
From 20 March:
When is some member of the media going to ask a REALLY nasty question like "How much stock did you and your son in law sell in January and February and in which companies?" I think we all deserve an answer to that one.
What used to be is gone and what ought to be ought not to be so hard
Burr is still a US Senator.
We still don't know anything about Trump's stock trading in the first two months of the year.
Barr and Trump have declared war on the Constitution.
This is gonna get a lot worse before it gets better and I'm not even talking about health issues.
From 23 March
It's really remarkable watching the conventional wisdom form. Apparently, the stock market is down because traders are concerned about the "delays" in getting a stimulus package passed. How do the pundits know this? Could the market actually be voting down the substance of the current proposal? Could the market be saying that the Fed's massive intervention is not all that helpful? Could the market have decided that the various state responses are too much or too little? Could the market be begging for actual leadership from the top? I don't know. But why are all these "experts" so certain?
It's good to see some knowledgeable questioning (as opposed to, say, the Rush Limbaugh kind) of the conventional wisdom that we need to lock down and isolate more and better. Again, I don't know the answer, I don't even know if there is a definitive answer. But I'm always leery of the conventional wisdom and I'm especially leery of rushes to judgment in crisis conditions before all or enough facts are known. I am NOT saying that anybody should adopt more reckless behavior at this point in time. But I do think the best decisions are made when multiple credible points of view are part of the decision making process and I'm starting to see evidence of that happening. In a normal world I would be confident that that would lead to better decisions. In the Trumpian world, who can say, but I'd still prefer to err on the side of multiple knowledgeable, considered opinions.
Of course the elephant in the room when we're talking about pandemic is that rational consideration of the available options inevitably must include putting a value on life, or IOW balancing an "acceptable" number of deaths against the value of other important considerations. That's ugly, important stuff that this nation is in no position to consider calmly and rationally. So I guess I'm a little worried about getting what I wish for. Unfortunately, these are indeed interesting times.
And in other non-news, Richard Burr is still a United States Senator.
What used to be is gone and what ought to be ought not to be so hard
I am overwhelmed by the size of the bailout package and the speed with which it is moving towards approval but I am underwhelmed by its substance. I was trying to figure out the whys and wherefores of it when I asked myself why the administration is so solidly in favor. Now things have become much more clear, if no more satisfying:
1. I have no doubt that Trump's businesses will be direct beneficiaries of bailout funds.
2. One thing that Trump has learned is that the appearance of action is far more important than the nature of that action. It seems, for example, that most people have no clue how little of substance is in Trump's NAFTA replacement or China trade "deal," but the message seems to be that Trump gets things done. So, in general, and certainly as applied to this bailout he cares a lot less about what's in this bill or what it's pluses and minuses might be than that he can claim the mantle of bold leader addressing a crisis head on.
3. The TWO TRILLION DOLLARS will provide great cover for Trump's failure to dent the deficit he promised to reduce to zero in eight years and for the complete failure of his tax cut to do anything other than increase the deficit.
IOW, the part that's not for his personal financial benefit is intended to enhance his re-election chances. And that's all there is folks.
What used to be is gone and what ought to be ought not to be so hard
So let's talk bailouts, conventional wisdom and the power of momentum. Why are airlines being singled out for targeted help? It seems obvious to me: As we all started learning about the coronavirus and responding to it, the first level of restrictions and discouragements related to travel. Restricting/reducing travel was supposed to limit the spread of the virus to the benefit of everyone so IOW, airlines (and related industries) were being asked to take one for the team - to suffer significant losses as a result of government regulation intended to benefit us all.
On that basis, helping the industry get through what was anticipated to be a relatively short term disaster not of its own making seemed to make a lot of sense. But that's not where we are anymore. Given the various "shelter in place" type restrictions affecting a huge swath of the public especially in the most populous states, there isn't a business that isn't affected, many as much or more than airlines. In the universe of businesses it seems to me that the pain has been spread pretty evenly, grocery stores excepted. This is now a full societal effort with everyone being asked to sacrifice for an uncertain and potentially lengthy period of time.
So why airlines? As best as I can tell it's because they were first, they're a discrete symbol of the crisis and their situation was originally worse than others. Then it's a matter of conventional wisdom and momentum. Airlines were "special" before so that specialness gets imbedded into policy without regard to changing circumstances.
And then there's Boeing. Well, airplane manufacturing sounds kind of line airlines, it's a big company that employs a lot of people and there are national defense/security implications to its continued vitality. But let's be real. Boeing's problems were serious and self-inflicted well before anyone ever heard of coronavirus. It was probably headed to bankruptcy anyway and I don't recall much in the way of a groundswell to bail them out. The company's virus related problems are no worse or different than any other company's. And yet, there they are, at the front of the line.
How about casinos? Like airlines, it's a fairly discrete and recognizable industry, it's glitzy and shiny and Las Vegas has a unique place in popular culture but what it mostly has is...Sheldon Adelson. Casinos are in the exact same position as everything from amusement parks to restaurants to clubs and music venues to sports leagues. Actually, I'd say the bar/restaurant/club/music industries are in far worse position because so much of it is owned by individuals and small businesses. And yet casinos have been singled out for help.
I read recently that the size of the bailout bill doubled in the week between its introduction and its finalization. When the base amount is a trillion, doubling it is a big freakin' number. Does anyone think that five days of frantic negotiations is enough time to figure out how best to spend a trillion dollars (or two, really)? I didn't think so.
If you want to say that $500 billion or more for business bailouts is the price that must be paid to get what's really needed, i.e. help for people in need, that this is what compromise and horse trading is all about, fine. That may be true and there may not have been another way to quickly get the help to the people who need it most. But let's not kid ourselves that this represents good, well thought out policy or that it's anything other than the swamp in action, robbing us blind.
What used to be is gone and what ought to be ought not to be so hard
In response to a reply to the previous post in which the responder noted that the bailout had to be big to "shock and awe" the public into believing that the govt is serious about doing what's necessary and that airlines are important well beyond the number of people they employ.
"Shock & awe." I agree. Spending unheard of amounts of money in a panicked frenzy of greed and corruption is much more attention grabbing than spending heard of amounts of money in a panicked frenzy of greed and corruption. This is also an implicit argument that reports of the rationality of markets are greatly exaggerated if not outright falsehoods. I think that's true, which means that I also very much doubt that soothing irrational markets is a great foundation for a strong economy to say nothing of a rational allocation of resources. This seems as good a time as any to suggest that sometime in the next few weeks some trader is going to wake up and realize that holy shit, the federal deficit for THIS YEAR is going to be over THREE TRILLION DOLLARS and deficits are bad so I better seeellllll nooooow!!!
In what scenario does the economy do well enough to make this a sensible investment with an adequate return? There may in fact be one, or more. I just have my doubts. Ironically, while I'm not equipped to make it right now, there is an argument that "the cure can't be worse than the disease" applies to this bailout plan at least as much as it applies to social distancing regulations.
Yep, airlines are important. More important than cars? Education? Biotech? Tech tech? Energy? Housing & construction?
I flat out do not believe that $58 Billion reflects any kind of serious calculation of the damage airlines are experiencing (might be less, could be more, who knows?) or the impact of those difficulties on the larger society. I am also extremely doubtful that this $58 Billion will be used in ways most advantageous for society/the economy as a whole..
All that said, full disclosure is called for: I can analyze this 'til the cows come home, but my starting proposition is that a plan cooked up by Mnuchin & McConnell overnight in the dead of night with the approval and encouragement of Donald Trump and the kibbitzing of Chuck Schumer is not going to be a sound plan that I want to bet my future, or my grandchildren's children's future, on. While that is not wholly rational it is far from irrational. We have years of form to measure this against including the amateurish and failed 2017 tax cut legislation and as we used to say, would you buy a used car from any of those guys?
What used to be is gone and what ought to be ought not to be so hard
beantownbubba wrote:
2. One thing that Trump has learned is that the appearance of action is far more important than the nature of that action. It seems, for example, that most people have no clue how little of substance is in Trump's NAFTA replacement or China trade "deal," but the message seems to be that Trump gets things done. So, in general, and certainly as applied to this bailout he cares a lot less about what's in this bill or what it's pluses and minuses might be than that he can claim the mantle of bold leader addressing a crisis head on.
yep, that is his MO, distilled into a sticky, black tarball.
there should have been some sort of blanket moratorium or at least reduction on rent/mortage payments that also benefited the banks so that landlords wouldn't run into the issue of defaulting. seems like the first obvious step if a giant swath of people are either not working or have substantial income cuts.
tinnitus photography wrote:there should have been some sort of blanket moratorium or at least reduction on rent/mortage payments that also benefited the banks so that landlords wouldn't run into the issue of defaulting. seems like the first obvious step if a giant swath of people are either not working or have substantial income cuts.
I've been told since I earned my first dollar, to save. Save for a rainy day, save for retirement, save, save, save. IMO corporations should be the same...they are people too, right? If you blow your wad on stock buybacks and executive bonuses and a month or two of bad business takes you down....well, you run a shitty business. No more fucking bailouts for these assholes. I'm a saver...I'll make it through this...and I know there would be no one to bail me out anyway.
tinnitus photography wrote:there should have been some sort of blanket moratorium or at least reduction on rent/mortage payments that also benefited the banks so that landlords wouldn't run into the issue of defaulting. seems like the first obvious step if a giant swath of people are either not working or have substantial income cuts.
I've been told since I earned my first dollar, to save. Save for a rainy day, save for retirement, save, save, save. IMO corporations should be the same...they are people too, right? If you blow your wad on stock buybacks and executive bonuses and a month or two of bad business takes you down....well, you run a shitty business. No more fucking bailouts for these assholes. I'm a saver...I'll make it through this...and I know there would be no one to bail me out anyway.
And the rich like to shame the poor into not saving.....ironic
And I knew when I woke up Rock N Roll would be here forever
Broadway shut down 15 days ago. So did the NBA and NHL. You know how bad things are in NYC right now? Now add a 14 day incubation period affecting thousands of theater goers and tens of thousands of sports fans just maturing. Now think about what percentage of those theater goers and sports fans would have been from out of town and how many would have taken the virus back to places all around the country and the globe. I think we should say a collective thank you to the responsible people who did the responsible thing at a time our federal government was fumbling and bumbling and getting this horribly wrong.
Apparently upwards of 50% of the country thinks the president is doing a good job in this crisis. At some point one must ask why bother even having a country? This is not some hot button issue like abortion or race/immigration. This is straightforward leadership, management and communication. Half the country is apparently fine with being lied to, with having its leader avoid responsibility, with having its leadership drag its feet when a prompt response could have saved many lives. I have no patience for this. I have no understanding of this. I have no sympathy for the many of these folks who continue to engage in dangerous behavior and then come down with the disease (excepting the children who have no say in the matter). There is an actual reality. If you don't believe in it, I really don't have any bond with you. At this point you're endangering the lives of the people I care about. Given where we were when this started and imagining where we'll be when this subsides, I have no idea how we go about picking up the pieces as a country.
Two op-eds worth reading this am. McArdle is not someone I regularly agree with and it doesn't matter if I (or you) agree with her specific suggestions. The point is that her larger message of the need to understand the nature of this crisis, to think creatively about potential solutions and to understand the need to match targeted solutions to specific problems is exactly what I've been talking about in my criticisms of the bailout package. Congress went about this in the wrong way and came out in the wrong place (or at the very least, not as strong a place as it might have). Rampell is someone I do agree with quite often and I agree with her here. Just like a month ago I couldn't understand why nobody was talking about the recession that seemed inevitable now I don't understand why nobody's talking about the major fiscal crisis brewing at the state level and how that will negatively affect our ability to address the on-going fallout from the crisis and to recover from it.
I KNEW IT! I KNEW IT! I KNEW IT! I just knew the bailout bill would be full of cute little provisions providing a bonanza to businesses while screwing the rest of us. Well I just found out about the first (but I'm sure not the last) of these. I'm sorry that this is kind of technical but I don't make this shit up I just report it.
So there are these tax rules related to things called net operating losses (NOL's) which allow businesses to reduce taxes against their profits if they've had losses within a stated period before or after the profitable years. In the bad old days these offsets were almost unlimited in that you could offset 100% of income going back 5 years and forward some number of years I forget. This made NOL's an attractive asset to profitable companies and they became subject to significant abuse. The rules were changed recently to allow an offset of only 80% and prohibiting the carryback of losses to offset income from prior years.
Well, now the 100% offset is back and so is the carryback. FOR FIVE FREAKIN' YEARS!!! So businesses that lose money this year presumably due to the unique circumstances currently in effect can now request REFUNDS from the IRS for taxes paid on income during one of the greatest business booms in history. SAY WHAT????? There is nothing about these new rules that incentivize socially desirable behavior by businesses currently or in the future. It's just a give back of taxes previously paid in years when the businesses were doing well FOR NO DAMN REASON. THIS IS ACTUAL CASH OUT OF POCKET FROM THE TREASURY. . Considering that most of us pay a higher percentage of our income in taxes than businesses do, Congress is literally TAKING OUR MONEY AND GIVING IT IN CASH TO SUCCESSFUL BUSINESSES!!!!
And those scumbags like Lindsay Graham and Ben Sasse were worried about you getting an "extra" $600 bucks? These people are not our friends. They along with the other 533 of them are in fact our enemies. Once again, under cover of relieving the real pain individuals are suffering, Congress is giving away the store to big business. This is so fucked up I can barely get the words out. Fuck them. Just fuck those fucking fuckers.
What used to be is gone and what ought to be ought not to be so hard
beantownbubba wrote:i am apoplectic. Beside myself.
I KNEW IT! I KNEW IT! I KNEW IT! I just knew the bailout bill would be full of cute little provisions providing a bonanza to businesses while screwing the rest of us. Well I just found out about the first (but I'm sure not the last) of these. I'm sorry that this is kind of technical but I don't make this shit up I just report it.
So there are these tax rules related to things called net operating losses (NOL's) which allow businesses to reduce taxes against their profits if they've had losses within a stated period before or after the profitable years. In the bad old days these offsets were almost unlimited in that you could offset 100% of income going back 5 years and forward some number of years I forget. This made NOL's an attractive asset to profitable companies and they became subject to significant abuse. The rules were changed recently to allow an offset of only 80% and prohibiting the carryback of losses to offset income from prior years.
Well, now the 100% offset is back and so is the carryback. FOR FIVE FREAKIN' YEARS!!! So businesses that lose money this year presumably due to the unique circumstances currently in effect can now request REFUNDS from the IRS for taxes paid on income during one of the greatest business booms in history. SAY WHAT????? There is nothing about these new rules that incentivize socially desirable behavior by businesses currently or in the future. It's just a give back of taxes previously paid in years when the businesses were doing well FOR NO DAMN REASON. THIS IS ACTUAL CASH OUT OF POCKET FROM THE TREASURY. . Considering that most of us pay a higher percentage of our income in taxes than businesses do, Congress is literally TAKING OUR MONEY AND GIVING IT IN CASH TO SUCCESSFUL BUSINESSES!!!!
And those scumbags like Lindsay Graham and Ben Sasse were worried about you getting an "extra" $600 bucks? These people are not our friends. They along with the other 533 of them are in fact our enemies. Once again, under cover of relieving the real pain individuals are suffering, Congress is giving away the store to big business. This is so fucked up I can barely get the words out. Fuck them. Just fuck those fucking fuckers.
We know a certain someone who lives in McConnell's DC neighborhood. I'm thinking flaming bags of dog shit on his front stoop...well, not really, I'm thinking much worse than that. Like William Wallace worse.
As expected the hits just keep on coming. I've just learned that in his "signing statement" accompanying his signing of the bailout bill, Trump rejected Congress's right to oversee the spending of the $500 Billion business giveaway portion of the bill. If this plays out in Trump's favor, it essentially guts the bill and leaves the Democrats with nothing but egg on their collective face and a disaster on their collective hands. There's a significant question as to whether Trump's position on this issue will carry the day, but excuse me, you (Dems) couldn't even get past the signing of the damn thing w/out taking a direct hit below the water line? What a fiasco.
What used to be is gone and what ought to be ought not to be so hard
I don't know where this country is heading but I'm seeing fewer and fewer potential scenarios that don't involve violence before we get wherever we're going. I've never wanted to be more wrong about anything but the world has already gone to hell in a hand basket and I don't know what the next level(s) is other than it can't be good.
What used to be is gone and what ought to be ought not to be so hard
