Coronavirus - COVID-19

[Cole Younger]

This would be a good analogy if the people not joining the military were actively spreading a virus to the ones who did

So the vaccine is effective. But I need to get it too because otherwise I might give it to you because it’s effective? We seem to want it both ways.

My non expert take on this using relative (not definitive or scientifically determined) numbers:

If 95% of those eligible in your area are vaccinated, an unvaccinated person is primarily at risk for him or herself only and secondarily puts those ineligible for the vaccine at risk. The latter may or may not be a big problem depending on how much exposure the unvaccinated person has to the ineligible population. One can complicate this further by going to the level where the unvaccinated person infects a vaccinated person who infects an ineligible person but let's keep it simple.

If 35% of the community is vaccinated the unvaccinated person is a primary threat to him or herself and to a large majority of his or her neighbors/community members while still being a secondary threat to the ineligible and contributes to the situation described below.

In the 35% vaccinated case and if the vaccinated percentage of the population is anywhere from zero to about 90%, the unvaccinated person combined with all other unvaccinated people in the community pretty much insure that threats or the actuality of mask mandates, lockdowns and the like won't go away for a long time and that the economy won't get back to full strength for an even longer time, particularly impacting mom and pop stores, bars and restaurants. This does not apply to communities where the population density is 5 people per square mile or thereabouts, which eliminates less than 10% of the population (and maybe closer to 1%, I didn't do the math) from these concerns.

Note: This latter point goes to the herd immunity question raised by Rod. Herd immunity is still the goal but my guess is that the places with the worst covid outbreaks are also the places with the highest vaccination rates so herd immunity kind of melds w/ the vaccination rate. Which means eventually those places currently experiencing new outbreaks and low vaccination rates will eventually reach something like herd immunity but only after a lot of unnecessary pain and aggravation. This is extremely unscientific but I'm pretty sure that's how it's been working in practice.

Well thank you for taking time to give some reasonable commentary on this. It’s a welcome breath of fresh air and much more useful than “Just do it. Shut up and do it. Stupid.”

[boyyourself]

Why do we no longer hear about herd immunity? It's all vaccines, all the time.
What about all those people who had it, recovered, and now have stronger immunity than the vaccinated?
It makes me wonder.

Because in a culture of problems, herd immunity is a solution. Cant have that. On that note I'm busting out of here to pick up the kid from volleyball camp In Grand junction then off to Salt Lake baby. It's no Prophet show but it'll have to do.

[Cole Younger]

It’s finally cooling off a little here. I think I’ll go fishing. Y’all have fun.

[beantownbubba]

But wait, Cole. Don't go yet. I needs to know: Does your momma wear army boots?

[pearlbeer]

Why do we no longer hear about herd immunity? It's all vaccines, all the time.
What about all those people who had it, recovered, and now have stronger immunity than the vaccinated?
It makes me wonder.

Point of clarification --- the vaccines provide a much higher level of immunity vs. exposure and recovery, because the vax generates a much higher antibody load in your system. That's a fact.

I’m still wondering if anybody besides bubba who seemed to have questions about it too has any thoughts on why the flu shot isn’t mandated and there isn’t a full court press on the flu with regular updates from Fauci and wall to wall coverage on it.

Also, are the people being allowed in across our southern border in rather large numbers being made to get the Covid vaccine or are they exempt? If so, why?

I can try to provide some answers here (based on my understanding)

1) Remember, masks, vaxxes, lockdowns, social distancing, etc.....all this stuff is intended to keep the hospital system from overloading. That is the main intention. Covid is overloading the hospital system again, thus the push for additional measures to contain it.

2) The following is based on my understanding (i'm not a medical professional or scientist..paging Dr. Mushroom). Most importantly, see point one. We don't see flu strain that overloads the hospital system. I'd speculate that is the main reason we don't see a push for mandates.
Influenza is a biologically different virus than Coronavirus. Influenza viruses are constantly changing and have multiple strains. That is why you need to get a flu shot annually - the virus changes year over year, thus the vaccines change each year to try to match the strain for the upcoming season. (this is why some seasons the flu vaccine is more effective than others - we make an educated guess on the most common strain(s) for the upcoming season). That also means that the flu can't be eradicated, we have to live with it. Coronavirus is a more specific type of virus thus can be targeted with a specific vaccine and be much more controlled or potentially effectively eliminated. It obviously has the potential to mutate, thus the rush to effectively eliminate it before we are dealing with something different.

Good luck fishing, heading out for a bike ride.

[cortez the killer]

It makes me wonder.

[Cole Younger]

But wait, Cole. Don't go yet. I needs to know: Does your momma wear army boots?

Man you know all of us crackers down here don’t wear shoes once you get outside Atlanta or Athens.

[Zip City]

So you just don't like the way they're asking?

No, Zip. And there’s more to it than that. You’re either being obtuse or you have t understood a thing Ive said about my own reasons for having reservations about it. I guess you’re just going to have to live with it, man. Take me off your list of worries. I’m pretty tough and will be ok.

I've heard your reasons but I guess I just don't understand them. Probably a me problem

[Cole Younger]

So you just don't like the way they're asking?

No, Zip. And there’s more to it than that. You’re either being obtuse or you have t understood a thing Ive said about my own reasons for having reservations about it. I guess you’re just going to have to live with it, man. Take me off your list of worries. I’m pretty tough and will be ok.

I've heard your reasons but I guess I just don't understand them. Probably a me problem

No big deal. If folks could just realize sometimes we just aren’t going to understand the other guy’s perspective but allow him his perspective less chicken fights would get started for no good reason.

[tinnitus photography]

I don't think I've said it doesn't work.

your words not mine (to use one of your favorite phrases):

So much for, if you're vaxxed, you're protected.

[LBRod]

Point of clarification --- the vaccines provide a much higher level of immunity vs. exposure and recovery, because the vax generates a much higher antibody load in your system. That's a fact.

If only it was that simple. The jury is still out on how long immunity lasts either way, and the nature of said immunity.
I am not trying to knock the vaccines, just noting that there seems to be no acknowledgment of the immunity millions
of people earned the old fashioned way.

[chuckrh]

It makes me wonder.

but does anyone remember laughter?

[pearlbeer]

Point of clarification --- the vaccines provide a much higher level of immunity vs. exposure and recovery, because the vax generates a much higher antibody load in your system. That's a fact.

If only it was that simple. The jury is still out on how long immunity lasts either way, and the nature of said immunity.
I am not trying to knock the vaccines, just noting that there seems to be no acknowledgment of the immunity millions
of people earned the old fashioned way.

Agree 100%. Jury is still out on all this shit. But, there is an abundance of evidence that tells us that the vax provides more protection than the old fashioned way…for now. Long term? You’re right…we won’t know till we get there brother.

[chuckrh]

Good article from the Seattle Times:

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-ne ... accinated/

This COVID sequel is maddening. Time to flip the script and up the pressure on the unvaccinated.

July 31, 2021 at 6:00 am Updated July 31, 2021 at 1:16 pm

https://static.seattletimes.com/wp-c...24-780x520.jpgA registered nurse fills syringes with Pfizer vaccines at a COVID-19 vaccination clinic at PeaceHealth St. Joseph Medical Center on June 3 in Bellingham. (Elaine Thompson / AP)


https://static.seattletimes.com/wp-c...g2-100x100.jpg By Danny Westneat
Seattle Times columnist

Here we go again.
Masks are supposed to go back on. Some businesses are being forced to close. Hospitals, at least in some parts of the state, have begun to warn about jammed emergency rooms.
“It’s déjà vu all over again,” said Reza Kaleel, a hospital executive in the Tri-Cities — right now the state’s hottest COVID hot spot. A delta variant outbreak there has caused a disheartening “fifth wave,” filling the local ICU this past week to the point that patients had to be medevaced out of town.
“The hardest thing for us to see, as health professionals, is that this is entirely preventable,” Kaleel said.
This past month when I wrote that “Washington had its chance to stomp the coronavirus, but we blew it,” a lot of readers objected.
Some didn’t like the royal “we.”
“ ‘We’ didn’t blow it,” a doctor from Snohomish wrote in. “Other areas of the state have done very well, with high vaccination rates and low infection rates. It’s an amazing success story, actually.”
Others wrote that they were done with the idea of “we.”


“I’m vaxxed so I guess I don’t worry about it anymore,” one wrote. “If you had the chance to get vaccinated and didn’t take it, and then you end up in the hospital, that’s on you.”
Others felt it’s all fundamentally nobody’s business (or at least none of mine).
“Since when were you anointed to rule over Eastern Washington?” wrote a man who insisted he had picked up my column only because he was passing the time at a store waiting for his wife. “Vaccinations here in Walla Walla or anywhere in this state are really none of your business.”
Well let’s check in on Walla Walla, shall we? Since then, the COVID case rate has shot up by another 37% (it was already one of the highest on the West Coast). This past week, a hospital in town asked people not to come to the emergency room unless they are having “a heart attack, stroke, trouble breathing, severe bone breaks, etc.”
“There is a higher likelihood of being air transferred to another facility, particularly for an intensive care bed,” the health director warned.
This sure sounds like somebody’s business. What’s happening now in this infuriating COVID sequel — the mask redux, bars closing due to mini-outbreaks, businesses delaying their returns to offices — is exactly what I meant when I said “we” had blown it. This societywide failure to contain the pandemic is going to touch you one way or another, even if you are vaccinated so that the disease itself may not.

At a briefing in the Tri-Cities, doctors were reduced to morosely begging their community to get vaccinated — to no apparent avail. After all this time and effort, Benton County is hovering at 47% of the eligible population vaccinated, while Franklin County has only 40%.
“There’s this lack of trust in science and our health care experts — it’s something I haven’t seen in my career before,” said Dr. Kevin Pieper of Kadlec Medical Center in Richland, where COVID hospitalizations have surged fourfold since June and are now back to the peak from last winter.
Kaleel, the administrator, said the hospital staff is demoralized by the “unending procession” of COVID waves and lockdowns. He’s now worried he won’t be able to recruit new doctors or nurses to “a community that continues to have a very low vaccination rate, knowing what they’re going to have to contend with here.”


The biggest concern, he said, is the unvaccinated population may percolate “mutations of the virus beyond this delta variant that may prove to be more resistant to the vaccines, and keep us all in this cycle.”
This was the most depressing briefing I’ve attended in the pandemic yet. They kept repeating how pointless and easily preventable it all is.
So what are we going to do now — now that we blew our chance to stomp the pandemic?
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The other day a KING 5 news anchor, Jake Whittenberg, asked: “Serious question … Where’s the effort to make the unvaccinated feel more comfortable about getting the shot, rather than just making them feel guilty?” Asked what people are objecting to, he said: “They’re uncomfortable with government telling them what to do.”
A good debate followed, but here’s the thing: Up till now, government hasn’t told anybody what to do — yet. They’ve made the shots free and easy to get. They dangled beer, lottery drawings, even free topsoil(!). They begged. On Thursday President Biden backed the once radical idea of paying people to get vaxxed.
The one thing they haven’t done is make anybody do anything.



That’s where I suspect we’re headed. Persuasion hasn’t worked. Hospitalization and death don’t seem to move the needle. The only thing left to try is to raise the costs and hassle of staying unvaccinated (for those who can medically take the vaccines, of course).
It’s why businesses increasingly are saying: Get vaxxed or you can’t work (there’s usually an out where you can take regular coronavirus tests instead). Or, as at some Seattle businesses, “no vaccine, no service.”
“I have a relative who won’t get vaccinated, but if you told her she couldn’t go to Costco, she’d be at CVS that same day with her sleeve rolled up,” one reader wrote me.

Exactly. It’s the American version of what they did in France, where you now have to show a “vaccine passport” to go to a Parisian cafe.
I’m not a fan of forced vaccination. Requiring vaccination to do certain things though, that’s a step shy of a hard mandate (especially if you can show a negative test as an alternative). But it’s a ratcheting up of pressure, which now seems sadly needed to halt the making of still more bad COVID sequels (sure to come this fall: Part VI, The Coviding).
As the weary doctors in the Tri-Cities testified the other day, we could have done this the easy way. But “we” chose not to — by which I mean, enough of us to rope in all of us. So the hard way it’s going to be.

[beantownbubba]

Why do we no longer hear about herd immunity? It's all vaccines, all the time.
What about all those people who had it, recovered, and now have stronger immunity than the vaccinated?
It makes me wonder.

Point of clarification --- the vaccines provide a much higher level of immunity vs. exposure and recovery, because the vax generates a much higher antibody load in your system. That's a fact.

I’m still wondering if anybody besides bubba who seemed to have questions about it too has any thoughts on why the flu shot isn’t mandated and there isn’t a full court press on the flu with regular updates from Fauci and wall to wall coverage on it.

Also, are the people being allowed in across our southern border in rather large numbers being made to get the Covid vaccine or are they exempt? If so, why?

I can try to provide some answers here (based on my understanding)

1) Remember, masks, vaxxes, lockdowns, social distancing, etc.....all this stuff is intended to keep the hospital system from overloading. That is the main intention. Covid is overloading the hospital system again, thus the push for additional measures to contain it.

2) The following is based on my understanding (i'm not a medical professional or scientist..paging Dr. Mushroom). Most importantly, see point one. We don't see flu strain that overloads the hospital system. I'd speculate that is the main reason we don't see a push for mandates.
Influenza is a biologically different virus than Coronavirus. Influenza viruses are constantly changing and have multiple strains. That is why you need to get a flu shot annually - the virus changes year over year, thus the vaccines change each year to try to match the strain for the upcoming season. (this is why some seasons the flu vaccine is more effective than others - we make an educated guess on the most common strain(s) for the upcoming season). That also means that the flu can't be eradicated, we have to live with it. Coronavirus is a more specific type of virus thus can be targeted with a specific vaccine and be much more controlled or potentially effectively eliminated. It obviously has the potential to mutate, thus the rush to effectively eliminate it before we are dealing with something different.

Good luck fishing, heading out for a bike ride.

Thanks. Very helpful.

[beantownbubba]

“Vaccinations here in Walla Walla or anywhere in this state are really none of your business.”

This is where things get really dicey.

We have seen here fairly passionate defenses of individual choice. They're hard to argue with because we (most of us) do value individual liberty highly. The counter argument runs along the lines of "your right to swing your fist ends at my nose" which is also true but a little harder to apply when the fist is unseen and the noses are of varying strength. It's a frustrating argument with no definitive answer unless one chooses one value over another, which is ok but not a real satisfying answer for those who have chosen differently.

BUT, this idea that "we," i.e. any group of citizens but let's say in this case we're talking about a "we" defined by geography have no business worrying about or being concerned about or expressing an opinion about other "we's" falls apart pretty quickly. The implications for living in civil society are horrifying and way more than theoretical. Is it none of "our" business when another area suffers a hurricane, a tornado, a wildfire? Is it none of our business if foreign invaders threaten the border in another area (you can apply that to immigration if you want but i'm talking about a military invasion)? It's already a joke when people in TX who can't stop bragging about how independent and self reliant they are complain that FEMA didn't respond fast enough especially when their representatives voted against FEMA funding but how funny is it when the argument extends to why should FEMA respond at all? In my most frustrated moments I have said, and I know plenty of people who are committed to saying, "ok, let's have a rule that no state can receive more in federal funding than it pays in federal taxes." That will have zero effect on the wealthiest states. It will destroy the poorest states. But apparently it's not the business of people in the wealthier states to worry about people in the poorer states. Wait. What? That can't be right. No. It isn't right. But that's the exact application of “Vaccinations here in Walla Walla or anywhere in this state are really none of your business.” It's a slippery slope. It's bad theory. It undermines the very notion of "neighbor," "country" and, ultimately, "human." It's fucked up.

[John A Arkansawyer]

It undermines the very notion of "neighbor," "country" and, ultimately, "human." It's fucked up.

Here's a quick fictional chaser to wash the taste of cold reason and hard fact out of your mind:

So Much Cooking
— by NAOMI KRITZER —

Some of the restaurants in town are still delivering food and I don’t know how I feel about that. Dominic and I are very lucky in that we do have the option of staying home. That makes me feel a little guilty, but in fact, me going out would not make the people who still have to go out, for their jobs, even one tiny bit safer. Quite the opposite. If I got infected, I’d be one more person spreading the virus. (Including to my nieces.) Anyway, Kat has to go out because she’s a labor and delivery nurse, and people are depending on her. But I don’t know if a pizza delivery guy should really be considered essential personnel.

[cortez the killer]

[Cole Younger]

So the pressure is going to be ratcheted up. Alright. When I first asked why it was so important that I get the vaccine I was told that I’m a danger to everyone until I do. Then when I asked how that is true if the vaccine is effective I was told that I should want to do it for my own health. So we are in favor of “ratcheting up the pressure” in order to make people do what we think it’s best for them. Let’s just say this latest bit of coerced “good” is feasible and ultimately happens. Then what? Because I don’t believe for one second that will be enough and everyone will be allowed to just go back to living their lives. I don’t believe for one second the goal posts won’t be moved again. It’s will never be enough. And the excuse will be “Well the science has evolved.” This will be uttered by people who wore two masks and drive down the road in their car alone wearing a mask. They really think they’re scientific and in the know. Ratcheting up the pressure is going to fall flat on its face I believe for a lot of different reasons. Who’s going to enforce it? How will they enforce it? How much of political concrete cloud do think that will be? You do want the democrats to remain in control don’t you? Better think about this.

[Zip City]

So the pressure is going to be ratcheted up. Alright. When I first asked why it was so important that I get the vaccine I was told that I’m a danger to everyone until I do. Then when I asked how that is true if the vaccine is effective I was told that I should want to do it for my own health.

Assuming that you're not the only unvaccinated person in your town/community, then yes, you are (potentially) a danger to the other unvaccinated folks whose immune systems may be wired differently than yours.

For whatever that's worth...

[Cole Younger]

So the pressure is going to be ratcheted up. Alright. When I first asked why it was so important that I get the vaccine I was told that I’m a danger to everyone until I do. Then when I asked how that is true if the vaccine is effective I was told that I should want to do it for my own health.

Assuming that you're not the only unvaccinated person in your town/community, then yes, you are (potentially) a danger to the other unvaccinated folks whose immune systems may be wired differently than yours.

For whatever that's worth...

None of those people want the vaccine so it’s risk they’ve decided to live with like I have. But what vaccinated people want for us is more important?

[Zip City]

So the pressure is going to be ratcheted up. Alright. When I first asked why it was so important that I get the vaccine I was told that I’m a danger to everyone until I do. Then when I asked how that is true if the vaccine is effective I was told that I should want to do it for my own health.

Assuming that you're not the only unvaccinated person in your town/community, then yes, you are (potentially) a danger to the other unvaccinated folks whose immune systems may be wired differently than yours.

For whatever that's worth...

None of those people want the vaccine so it’s risk they’ve decided to live with like I have. But what vaccinated people want for us is more important?

More important? That's a tough call. But yes, in terms of "people as numbers," vaccinated people would very much like for the country reach the point where the virus is under control.

[Cole Younger]

Assuming that you're not the only unvaccinated person in your town/community, then yes, you are (potentially) a danger to the other unvaccinated folks whose immune systems may be wired differently than yours.

For whatever that's worth...

None of those people want the vaccine so it’s risk they’ve decided to live with like I have. But what vaccinated people want for us is more important?

More important? That's a tough call. But yes, in terms of "people as numbers," vaccinated people would very much like for the country reach the point where the virus is under control.

Zip your blind faith is somewhat inspiring even if I don’t understand how it’s possible. I got news for you buddy, this is going to be like The War on Terror. It’s never going to go away as long as there are enough people willing to go along with it. The second everyone becomes one of God’s people and get their baptism of vaccine there will just be some new “requirement”.

[Zip City]

Except that hasn’t been true. The CDC recommended reopening earlier this year. Why would they have done so if they wanted us in perpetual lockdown? Why would they make the vaccine free?

And, again, who wants this and what do they stand to gain from it? It’s the question no one can answer.

[Cole Younger]

Except that hasn’t been true. The CDC recommended reopening earlier this year. Why would they have done so if they wanted us in perpetual lockdown? Why would they make the vaccine free?

And, again, who wants this and what do they stand to gain from it? It’s the question no one can answer.

Janet Jackson sang a song about it, Controoooool. Fauci said in April of ‘20 we would never go back to normal living. Wake up and smell the tyranny, man.

[Zip City]

Except that hasn’t been true. The CDC recommended reopening earlier this year. Why would they have done so if they wanted us in perpetual lockdown? Why would they make the vaccine free?

And, again, who wants this and what do they stand to gain from it? It’s the question no one can answer.

Janet Jackson sang a song about it, Controoooool. Fauci said in April of ‘20 we would never go back to normal living. Wake up and smell the tyranny, man.

You didn't answer the question:

Who is controlling us, and what do they stand to gain?

[Cole Younger]

Except that hasn’t been true. The CDC recommended reopening earlier this year. Why would they have done so if they wanted us in perpetual lockdown? Why would they make the vaccine free?

And, again, who wants this and what do they stand to gain from it? It’s the question no one can answer.

Janet Jackson sang a song about it, Controoooool. Fauci said in April of ‘20 we would never go back to normal living. Wake up and smell the tyranny, man.

You didn't answer the question:

Who is controlling us, and what do they stand to gain?

You ignore half of my questions. Why do you act like this is your board and you make the rules?

The .gov. Same as always. And you can’t see any gain because you think their intentions are good. Power. That’s what these people care about. Power for its own sake.

[Zip City]

Janet Jackson sang a song about it, Controoooool. Fauci said in April of ‘20 we would never go back to normal living. Wake up and smell the tyranny, man.

You didn't answer the question:

Who is controlling us, and what do they stand to gain?

You ignore half of my questions. Why do you act like this is your board and you make the rules?

The .gov. Same as always. And you can’t see any gain because you think their intentions are good. Power. That’s what these people care about. Power for its own sake.

Sure, power for its own sake, maybe some of them, but there is no tangible benefit for Joe Biden or Mitch McConnell or whoever for me, random dude in Ohio, wearing a mask. I don't see how keeping COVID lockdowns a thing is worth the trouble for them (there are far more efficient ways to control people than all of this)

[Cole Younger]

You didn't answer the question:

Who is controlling us, and what do they stand to gain?

You ignore half of my questions. Why do you act like this is your board and you make the rules?

The .gov. Same as always. And you can’t see any gain because you think their intentions are good. Power. That’s what these people care about. Power for its own sake.

Sure, power for its own sake, maybe some of them, but there is no tangible benefit for Joe Biden or Mitch McConnell or whoever for me, random dude in Ohio, wearing a mask. I don't see how keeping COVID lockdowns a thing is worth the trouble for them (there are far more efficient ways to control people than all of this)

The easiest way to get people to willingly give over their personal freedom is to convince them it’s for their safety. Then take the ones who comply and strike their ego about how they’re good patriotic Americans doing their part who care about others. Then shame the ones who don’t and you’ve got yourself a nice wedge issue. Look around you. That’s exactly what’s happening. If this
Doesn’t all sound familiar it should. The same template was used for the war on terrorism.

[jr29]

So the pressure is going to be ratcheted up. Alright. When I first asked why it was so important that I get the vaccine I was told that I’m a danger to everyone until I do. Then when I asked how that is true if the vaccine is effective I was told that I should want to do it for my own health.

Assuming that you're not the only unvaccinated person in your town/community, then yes, you are (potentially) a danger to the other unvaccinated folks whose immune systems may be wired differently than yours.

For whatever that's worth...

None of those people want the vaccine so it’s risk they’ve decided to live with like I have. But what vaccinated people want for us is more important?

If it was only about people choosing to not take the vaccine and what happens to them then I am basically at a point where I don't care. We take our own chance and pay our own dues. There are folks who cannot get it though. Some folks with autoimmune disorders, people who are allergic to an ingredient, some cancer patients, etc. Bob Crawford is the bassist for the Avett Brothers and as of a few months ago his daughter wasn't going to be able to get it because of cancer treatments. I'm not ok with those folks being forced to live with the risk.

There is also the much more selfish reason of wanting a normal life again. The easiest way to get that is by 75-80 percent, or whatever the number is, of the population being immunized.