MLB 2018

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beantownbubba
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by beantownbubba »

Mike Trout has won his second MVP award and he's not even 26. Very, amazingly impressive. But what really blows me away is that in FIVE full major league seasons, he has NEVER finished lower than SECOND in the MVP voting. That is just ridiculous. I don't know if it's ever been done before and I don't care; it's just incredible.

Congrats to Kris Bryant for his well deserved award as well.
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by whatwouldcooleydo? »

beantownbubba wrote:Mike Trout has won his second MVP award and he's not even 26. Very, amazingly impressive. But what really blows me away is that in FIVE full major league seasons, he has NEVER finished lower than SECOND in the MVP voting. That is just ridiculous. I don't know if it's ever been done before and I don't care; it's just incredible.

Congrats to Kris Bryant for his well deserved award as well.
Mike Trout Is The MVP — And Still On Track For The G.O.A.T.
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by beantownbubba »

whatwouldcooleydo? wrote:
beantownbubba wrote:Mike Trout has won his second MVP award and he's not even 26. Very, amazingly impressive. But what really blows me away is that in FIVE full major league seasons, he has NEVER finished lower than SECOND in the MVP voting. That is just ridiculous. I don't know if it's ever been done before and I don't care; it's just incredible.

Congrats to Kris Bryant for his well deserved award as well.
Mike Trout Is The MVP — And Still On Track For The G.O.A.T.
The names behind him on those annual lists and the amounts by which he is ahead are just ridiculous.
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by whatwouldcooleydo? »

beantownbubba wrote:
whatwouldcooleydo? wrote:
beantownbubba wrote:Mike Trout has won his second MVP award and he's not even 26. Very, amazingly impressive. But what really blows me away is that in FIVE full major league seasons, he has NEVER finished lower than SECOND in the MVP voting. That is just ridiculous. I don't know if it's ever been done before and I don't care; it's just incredible.

Congrats to Kris Bryant for his well deserved award as well.
Mike Trout Is The MVP — And Still On Track For The G.O.A.T.
The names behind him on those annual lists and the amounts by which he is ahead are just ridiculous.
Indeed. When your name is in the same conversation as those all-time greats, you are something extraordinary
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by beantownbubba »

whatwouldcooleydo? wrote:Indeed. When your name is in the same conversation as those all-time greats, you are something extraordinary
And when their names are in the conversation with yours, you are REALLY something extraordinary. :)
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by whatwouldcooleydo? »

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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by Zip City »

whatwouldcooleydo? wrote:
beantownbubba wrote:Mike Trout has won his second MVP award and he's not even 26. Very, amazingly impressive. But what really blows me away is that in FIVE full major league seasons, he has NEVER finished lower than SECOND in the MVP voting. That is just ridiculous. I don't know if it's ever been done before and I don't care; it's just incredible.

Congrats to Kris Bryant for his well deserved award as well.
Mike Trout Is The MVP — And Still On Track For The G.O.A.T.
It's too bad he's wasting away on the Angels
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by LBRod »

Zip City wrote:
whatwouldcooleydo? wrote:
beantownbubba wrote:Mike Trout has won his second MVP award and he's not even 26. Very, amazingly impressive. But what really blows me away is that in FIVE full major league seasons, he has NEVER finished lower than SECOND in the MVP voting. That is just ridiculous. I don't know if it's ever been done before and I don't care; it's just incredible.

Congrats to Kris Bryant for his well deserved award as well.
Mike Trout Is The MVP — And Still On Track For The G.O.A.T.
It's too bad he's wasting away on the Angels
Winning MVPs is wasting away? I disagree.
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by Zip City »

Winning MVP's on losing teams is cold comfort.
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by Shakespeare »

he doesnt have a whole lot of control over that does he

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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by Zip City »

Shakespeare wrote:he doesnt have a whole lot of control over that does he
Nope, but imagine how quickly the Angels could rebuild by trading him
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by beantownbubba »

Zip City wrote:
Shakespeare wrote:he doesnt have a whole lot of control over that does he
Nope, but imagine how quickly the Angels could rebuild by trading him
I'm having a difficult time imagining. How much would the Angels need to get for Trout to "rebuild quickly" while losing a once in a generation player? What team would have that kind of value hanging around as excess baggage that could be traded for one guy, no matter how good? Obviously they could get something for Trout. The can probably get a lot. Whether they can get enough seems to me to be a very open question.
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by whatwouldcooleydo? »

Zip City wrote:Nope, but imagine how quickly the Angels could rebuild by trading him
from the article I linked:

As a result — and in concert with MLB labor mechanisms that force young stars to either play for peanuts through their arbitration years or lock themselves into long, below-market extensions (as Trout did in 2014, re-signing with the Angels through 2020) — Trout has produced a ton of surplus value for the Angels, relative to what he’s been paid. According to FanGraphs.com, Trout’s production would have been worth about $357 million on the open market since his MLB debut, a span over which he was paid only about $24 million.

That’s why speculation that the Yankees are loading up for a Trout trade breaks down upon examination. At a glance, why not ship Trout away from a rebuilding team where his WAR is being wasted (aside, of course, from Angels fans who like to watch him play) to a huge market that has the prospects for a blockbuster deal? The answer: It would take a monster package of young talent to justify trading away a player who so outperforms his contract and probably will continue to do so for the next several years.

If we apply Tom Tango’s simple WAR projection system with an average future value of $8.6 million per win,3 the final four seasons of Trout’s contract figure to see him generate 32.5 WAR, for a market value of $282 million,4 and be paid $122 million. So it probably won’t be until Trout’s next contract that the cost-benefit tradeoff of having him around begins to make a trade realistic for either the Angels or the team they’re negotiating with.

At that point, the math gets a little silly. Even in the first year of his next deal, Trout’s WAR projects to be worth so much on the open market (roughly $75 million) that he’d need a truly paradigm-shifting contract — one that would basically double the highest annual salary of anybody in the game right now — to not be underpaid. With superstar free-agent deals, the question often isn’t whether they’ll be paid more than they’re worth, but by how much. Trout, however, is so good that it might be hard for him to earn fair market value even in his big post-prime payday.


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Shakespeare
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by Shakespeare »

Zip City wrote:
Shakespeare wrote:he doesnt have a whole lot of control over that does he
Nope, but imagine how quickly the Angels could rebuild by trading him
again, entirely out of his control.

all he can do is play, which hes on pace to do better than anyone ever. as much as any athlete will pay lip service to the idea of a ring above all else, not many will turn down being the best ever. if thats "cold comfort," then thats not a bad deal

the guys beyond even a generational talent and it seems like no one can talk about him without immediately bringing it down by mentioning his shitty supporting cast. i dont get it

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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by whatwouldcooleydo? »

Shakespeare wrote:the guys beyond even a generational talent and it seems like no one can talk about him without immediately bringing it down by mentioning his shitty supporting cast. i dont get it
I kinda get it. I mean, no one wants him to be an all-time great who always plays on shitty teams, a la Ernie Banks
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by Shakespeare »

true, it just seems to always come up as if its a knock against trout, like people are desperate to find one. its unfortunate, but if anything it makes his greatness even more impressive, as theres no reason at all to pitch to him but he still crushes everyone.

baseballs not basketball, one guy can only do so much.

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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by Zip City »

I don't say it as a knock on Trout. I'm saying it's a shame for him and for the league that the best player is sort of buried right now. He should be the most popular, recognized name in baseball, but until/unless he somehow gets dealt to a contender or bigger name team, he will continue to be under appreciated by the casual fan.
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by Cubfan06 »

beantownbubba wrote:
Zip City wrote:
Shakespeare wrote:he doesnt have a whole lot of control over that does he
Nope, but imagine how quickly the Angels could rebuild by trading him
I'm having a difficult time imagining. How much would the Angels need to get for Trout to "rebuild quickly" while losing a once in a generation player? What team would have that kind of value hanging around as excess baggage that could be traded for one guy, no matter how good? Obviously they could get something for Trout. The can probably get a lot. Whether they can get enough seems to me to be a very open question.
I believe that with Arrieta likely going elsewhere in free agency after the 2017 season and John Lackey retiring or going elsewhere after the 2017 season, the Cubs would be better suited using their depth to trade for the likes of a Chris Archer, Sonny Gray, Chris Sale, Julio Tehran, etc.

Just in theory though the Cubs will still have a ton of depth on paper at positions in the outfield and infield. Theoretically, do you guys believe that a package of Baez (Young cornerstone future Allstar 2B or SS), Schwarber (young future All Star DH/OF) and Jorge Soler would be a close fit for a once a generational player? How much more would the Cubs have to give up? It was something my buddies and I were discussing over pints this weekend.

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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by Zip City »

I think you'd have to start with Baez/Schwarber/Eloy/Happ and probably add from there
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by beantownbubba »

Obviously it depends a lot on what the Angels perceive their needs to be, which in turn depends on an evaluation of the state of their farm system and who might be ready when as well as whatever other trade plans they might have in mind to fill in behind a Trout trade and I don't have anywhere enough familiarity with any of that to give a realistic assessment. On a "theoretical model" kind of basis, I'd assume you'd need at least 2 very good hitters w/ some remaining upside, at least one of whom can play the outfield well, a #2ish starter and a near ready highly rated prospect at a perceived need position. All the players would need to be young and all or maybe all but one would need to be under favorable contractual control for several years.
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by Tequila Cowboy »

beantownbubba wrote:Obviously it depends a lot on what the Angels perceive their needs to be, which in turn depends on an evaluation of the state of their farm system and who might be ready when as well as whatever other trade plans they might have in mind to fill in behind a Trout trade and I don't have anywhere enough familiarity with any of that to give a realistic assessment. On a "theoretical model" kind of basis, I'd assume you'd need at least 2 very good hitters w/ some remaining upside, at least one of whom can play the outfield well, a #2ish starter and a near ready highly rated prospect at a perceived need position. All the players would need to be young and all or maybe all but one would need to be under favorable contractual control for several years.
Oh it would cost way more than that. If the price that the White Sox have placed on Chris Sale to your Red Sox is any indication it's difficult to even price Trout. The White Sox have apparently asked for Yoan Moncada, Andrew Benintendi, one of the young pitching prospects like Michael Kopech and 2 or 3 more lower level prospects. If that's asking for Sale you'd probably figure that Trout is untradable.
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by beantownbubba »

Tequila Cowboy wrote:
beantownbubba wrote:Obviously it depends a lot on what the Angels perceive their needs to be, which in turn depends on an evaluation of the state of their farm system and who might be ready when as well as whatever other trade plans they might have in mind to fill in behind a Trout trade and I don't have anywhere enough familiarity with any of that to give a realistic assessment. On a "theoretical model" kind of basis, I'd assume you'd need at least 2 very good hitters w/ some remaining upside, at least one of whom can play the outfield well, a #2ish starter and a near ready highly rated prospect at a perceived need position. All the players would need to be young and all or maybe all but one would need to be under favorable contractual control for several years.
Oh it would cost way more than that. If the price that the White Sox have placed on Chris Sale to your Red Sox is any indication it's difficult to even price Trout. The White Sox have apparently asked for Yoan Moncada, Andrew Benintendi, one of the young pitching prospects like Michael Kopech and 2 or 3 more lower level prospects. If that's asking for Sale you'd probably figure that Trout is untradable.
But the Sox haven't made that trade, have they? I did say, and mean, "at least." I suggested what I think the core of a transaction might look like that would be filled out by a combination of young major and minor leaguers but sure the core package might need to include another star or almost star level player. And when you add in the contractual considerations of giving up Trout's favorable contract and paying all the players the Angels will get in return "untradeable" is probably the right conclusion.

Anybody remember the details of the Herschel Walker trade? And Trout is better at professional baseball than Walker ever was at professional football.
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by whatwouldcooleydo? »

How the Cubs Can Become a Dynasty

about to crash, haven't read this yet but wanted to post it. If it sucks, I'm just the messenger. If it's brilliant, I take all the credit ;)
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by beantownbubba »

whatwouldcooleydo? wrote:How the Cubs Can Become a Dynasty

about to crash, haven't read this yet but wanted to post it. If it sucks, I'm just the messenger. If it's brilliant, I take all the credit ;)
And if it's mediocre? (Which it is)
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by Tequila Cowboy »

beantownbubba wrote:
whatwouldcooleydo? wrote:How the Cubs Can Become a Dynasty

about to crash, haven't read this yet but wanted to post it. If it sucks, I'm just the messenger. If it's brilliant, I take all the credit ;)
And if it's mediocre? (Which it is)
I'm not sure why trading Mike Trout to the Cubs seems to give baseball writers a woody but clearly it does. This writer even suggests trading Kris Bryant in a deal for Trout. Bryant is under team control through 2021, 1 year longer than Trout, for probably around $55 mil if you guestimate arb dollars in 2018 and beyond. Trout is signed through 2020 and the price tag is $123 mil through that time. Being just slightly generous Trout is probably a 9 WAR player during that span so 36 total WAR for the rest of his deal. Bryant is signed one year longer and is probably an 8 WAR player through his control so 40 WAR. Trout is clearly the best position player on the planet but it would take more than Bryant to get him, and you could possibly even argue that the latter's versatility puts him closer to the former than first glance would tell you. For the love of all that is holy stop this talk. No the Cubs don't have Mike Trout but they have Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber and I'm not at all convinced that Heyward won't turn it around. It's stupid talk and it has been ground to the ground in the last few months. I hope Trout is traded, it would be good for the game, but there is no realistic scenario where he would go to the Cubs.

The other points the piece makes are so obvious as to make his opinions moot. He lays out all the options the Cubs have and then doesn't pick one unless masturbating over Mike Trout counts. So mediocre, yeah but I might even say worse.
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by beantownbubba »

Tequila Cowboy wrote:The other points the piece makes are so obvious as to make his opinions moot. He lays out all the options the Cubs have and then doesn't pick one unless masturbating over Mike Trout counts. So mediocre, yeah but I might even say worse.
Yep, I intended "mediocre" to mean summarizing the obvious and well-known.
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by Tequila Cowboy »

This is a pretty good piece on why the White Sox keep shooting themselves in the foot. The backstory to the new Guaranteed Rate Field thing mentioned in the piece is that the Sox signed the contract, announced the deal apparently just assuming that Guaranteed Rate would use a special "baseball appropriate" logo at the ballpark at 35th and Shields. One would assume that would have come up in negotiations but then end result was that Guaranteed Rate said no and there is now a downward arrow plastered all over the park. The White Sox reaction was shock and dismay at the deal that they, themselves signed! It would be funny if it wasn't so sad. Well ok, fuck that, it's funny as shit.

http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2016/11/30/ ... fortunate/

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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by whatwouldcooleydo? »

beantownbubba wrote:
whatwouldcooleydo? wrote:How the Cubs Can Become a Dynasty

about to crash, haven't read this yet but wanted to post it. If it sucks, I'm just the messenger. If it's brilliant, I take all the credit ;)
And if it's mediocre? (Which it is)
well, since it's mediocre, it means I don't need to bother reading it ;)
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by Tequila Cowboy »

New CBA done. The All Star Game no longer has anything to do with home field in the World Series. Hallelujah!
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by Zip City »

Tequila Cowboy wrote:New CBA done. The All Star Game no longer has anything to do with home field in the World Series. Hallelujah!
Yet the DH rule is still a thing (meaning inconsistently applied)
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