MLB 2018

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LBRod
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Re: MLB 2017

Post by LBRod »

Tequila Cowboy wrote:Ok Giants fans, WTF? They trade Christian Arroyo for an aging Evan Longoria who had a .737 OPS and 96 wRC+ in 2017? Are they eating stupid pills? This team looks like it's ripe for a rebuild and they get a declining superstar. I don't get it.
It's an attempt to stay relevant this year, and fuck the future. If several what ifs come true there is a chance. I'm not holding my breath.
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Re: MLB 2017

Post by whatwouldcooleydo? »

Maybe they were hoodwinked into thinking they had traded for Eva Longoria ;)
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Re: MLB 2018

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Gerrit Cole to the Astros. Players going back not yet disclosed.
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Re: MLB 2018

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Tequila Cowboy wrote:Gerrit Cole to the Astros. Players going back not yet disclosed.
Fake news I guess. There's been so little activity I guess the baseball media jumped the gun.
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Re: MLB 2018

Post by Sterling Bigmouth »

Most boring offseason in a long time. Are GMs getting smarter or is something else at work?
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Re: MLB 2018

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Sterling Bigmouth wrote:Most boring offseason in a long time. Are GMs getting smarter or is something else at work?
They are saving up for next year's free agent class.
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Re: MLB 2018

Post by Tequila Cowboy »

LBRod wrote:
Sterling Bigmouth wrote:Most boring offseason in a long time. Are GMs getting smarter or is something else at work?
They are saving up for next year's free agent class.
That's certainly part of it but it's more than that. This is a correction. The first part of it is that pretty much all 30 teams are working from the same or similar data regarding player value now and if they're going to overpay, they're going to do it in dollars where in the past they did it with years. It's not that they ever thought that a player that they signed at the start of his age 30 season was going to be at the same level at age 37 but they added those years to balance the money. In many cases they figured their contention window would be done by then and they would have received the value by winning early in the contract, and then save some of it by trading the players and eating some salary. That hasn't worked out so well so now they've shifted and would rather overpay on AAV (Wade Davis at $17.5 mil per to give a perfect example) but they won't give the years. Guys like Scott Boras want the long deals for their guys so everyone can sit back and count their money. That, plus the point that many of the big spenders are trying to stay under the luxury threshold (Cubs, Yankees, Dodgers) and you have one hell of an impasse. J'D. Martinez is not getting $200 mil over 7 and neither is Jake Arrieta. Greg Holland held out for a 4th full year with a 5th year as a vesting option from Colorado but when the Rockies wrote the check it was for 3 years and a vesting option and they spelled his name Wade Davis.

The players, or more specifically the MLBPA, have no one to blame but themselves. They've been hosed in the last two CBAs and didn't really even notice. The luxury tax, once an annoyance but not a hindrance to teams with money, is now with it's high penalties and draft implications in essence a soft salary cap. The Dodgers paid almost $64 mil in tax last year and were on pace to pay that plus another $30 million this year plus lose ten slots in their draft order for their first pick. Rather than do that they got creative, and got under the tax. The Yankees also got under and the Cubs stayed in order to "reset the clock" so they cross it next year with only first year penalties of 20% not the 30%, 42%, 50% and 92% of later years crossed and dollars spent. I don't have a huge problem with the correction, the big guys are going to get paid, Harper is still going to get his $400 mil and Machado and Kershaw will probably get their $300 mil next year. The problem is for the second tier guys and below who aren't going to see nearly the money their forebears with similar talent levels did. The basic rule of thumb for the past couple of years is that 1 WAR = $8 mil but 1 WAR players aren't going to come close to that number anymore and 2-2.5 WAR players likely won't either. Those are the guys I feel badly for.

The bottom line is that this is going to all come to a head in the next CBA negotiations. The relative peace that's been seen for so many years between MLB and the MLBPA is going to end. There is no way a work stoppage is going to be avoided and that's bad for all of us that love the game.
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Re: MLB 2018

Post by beantownbubba »

Excellent analysis, TC. I don't disagree w/ any of it just wanted to add some details around the margins.

It is now pretty much accepted wisdom throughout MLB that the way to build a winner is to develop the core in house then add a piece or 2 through free agency or by trading a prospect or 2 (preferably one who is blocked by another player of at least equal talent and similar age). That immediately reduces the market for pretty much all veteran players.

One of the justifications for the incredible rise in salaries is that sports is entertainment and the players are that rare commodity, the entertainers. But how many $10 million per picture (to say nothing of $20 Million) stars are in any single film? In comparison, the salaries for the lesser actors and the non-acting supporting "players" are a pittance. And EACH picture is its own "business," its own negotiation. The days of "3 picture deals" and the like for actors are, to my knowledge, mostly over (except for franchise sequels but those have their own set of internal dynamics). IOW, some entertainers are worth a whole boatload of money but it's a pretty small percentage of even the small pool of professionals and the value itself is very much tied to the particulars of each situation.

Similarly, at every level of decreasing performance, the pool of talent widens (no surprise there, it's true of every endeavor). Teams have become a lot more reluctant to pay, say, a 6 WAR player three-quarters of what they pay an 8 WAR player in part because the "R" pool at the 6 level is a lot different than the R at the 8 level. Also, the market used to be set by the player who had particular value to a single team that was willing to overpay for that "last piece". So a 6 WAR catcher for a team a catcher short of world series level performance is not the same as another 6 WAR catcher for a different team and teams are realizing that. "Outlier" contracts don't set the market the way they used to (there are exceptions of course).

Baseball has found itself in this conundrum of giving short-term resources long term, non-voidable contracts (compare most prominently with football). While baseball players don't get hurt as much and to the extent of football players, they do get hurt, lose time and play at less than peak efficiency pretty predictably. And pitchers DO get hurt pretty damn regularly. Just like football, the actual peak years of any player are only a fraction of that player's career yet the long term contracts pay peak value prices for many more years. Inevitably, the teams had to adjust to this reality. It started w/ pitchers (no more than 4 yrs! was the mantra not long ago) and now it's spread to the entire lineup. Just like it's cheaper for AT&T to give its workers a high profile one time $1,000 bonus than to raise wages by $1,000, it's a lot cheaper for teams to pay more money for fewer years and particularly to target the most money to the most valuable years.
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Re: MLB 2018

Post by beantownbubba »

One more thing:

I have no idea how much this motivates any particular team's decision-making, but for each team there clearly is a graph which shows just how competitive a team needs to be to maximize its profitability. Presumably for the Marlins anything short of a World Series winner is a money-losing proposition. For teams like the Red Sox and Cubs a non-competitive club with a semi-convincing plan or a potential superstar in Double AA is more than enough. It is a very different question to ask whether the addition of a particular player at a given high price will impact the team's ability to win as opposed to the team's ability to make more money. It's no coincidence that the better franchises seem motivated more by the desire to win than by the desire to maximize profits, but this calculus has to influence every team's strategy to some degree. I speculate that the more a team is motivated by profitability the less it is willing to spend on star players and, especially, players below star level.
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Re: MLB 2018

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Good post, Bubba. Yeah, I mean it's really complicated. Reading Jeter's "Project Wolverine" investment memo points out a lot of what you're saying. The kicker there is that when figuring profits the small market teams are not counting revenue sharing payments in payroll calculations so essentially ownership groups can pocket that money without consequence. Oakland, who never should have received that revenue sharing in the first place, has finally had those payments removed but what of the other clubs? There are a few paths to winning in MLB but essentially it comes down to drafting and development. The large market teams have an advantage because the can make mistakes and cover them up with spending and they can also retain their own players. Small market and medium market teams have less margin for error and, dependent on specific markets, can usually only retain a few if any of their top players when FA rolls around, or even arbitration rewards fro teams like Tampa Bay or Miami. Yet these cities are allowed to seek and receive publicly financed stadiums with no strings attached. In other words we know they have to be nearly perfect in their player decisions to compete, they are given money from the league to help them do so and often even taxpayer money for their stadiums. Miami as an MLB market is screwed. There was 20 years of data showing that attendance couldn't comfortably support a team there, even when they had championship seasons (both teams had to be immediately sold for parts), and yet ownership was approved for, again, a taxpayer funded stadium and Tampa Bay looks to want to repeat that mistake. I don't mind teams breaking down their teams in order to start from scratch, I actually think that's good for the game because mediocrity is worse than being bad for a few years (Baltimore, Pittsburgh I'm looking at you) but if MLB really wants a healthy competitive balance there have to be consequences for the failures. At very least teams that pocket the revenue sharing should have it taken away if it isn't invested in the team, and there should be some consequence for repeated failure to execute any sort of organization.

Now I get it, that's a lot of broad thinking without a ton of concrete suggestions but that ain't my job. Baseball is overall healthy as a sport but it's foundation is a little ugly when you look closer. The bulk of the total fanbase for MLB is aging fast, outreach to youth is coming nowhere near it's stated goals, and several markets look to be black holes fielding non-competitive teams. Add to that the point I brought up in my earlier post about how the average player is getting squeezed financially while teams have to overpay for stars and I don't see this sport growing, or potentially even surviving, over the next fifty years. Yet in its infinite wisdom MLB just allowed the sale of a team to a group with a financial plan to make money without winning. It ain't a rosy picture.
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Re: MLB 2018

Post by beantownbubba »

That revenue sharing funds do not have to be spent on baseball related activities is so mind boggling one would think such a plan could only come out of Washington. That's not a compliment.
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Re: MLB 2018

Post by Zip City »

Everything about revenue sharing and competitive balance is broken in MLB. Why the hell do the Cardinals get an extra draft pick ("competitive balance pick") every year? Why do they need extra help?
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Re: MLB 2018

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Re: MLB 2018

Post by Shakespeare »

i was really happy to see jim thome come out and say he doesnt want chief wahoo on his hall of fame plaque

always seemed like a stand up dude but i wasnt sure what the proof was

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Re: MLB 2018

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Shakespeare wrote:i was really happy to see jim thome come out and say he doesnt want chief wahoo on his hall of fame plaque

always seemed like a stand up dude but i wasnt sure what the proof was
Living in Ohio (albeit 2 hours from Cleveland) I saw a lot of Facebook polls from Cleveland radio/TV stations and websites asking about the logo. Overwhelmingly, the responses were that people were pissed off that Wahoo was going away. What the fuck is wrong with people?
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Re: MLB 2018

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i get why people cling to it, its the attempts at some sort of gotcha (all basically hinging on how thome didnt complain about wahoo while he was playing) that i find ridiculous. like someone changing their opinion based on new information and experiences is some sort of character flaw and not just...life

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Re: MLB 2018

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Shakespeare wrote:i get why people cling to it, its the attempts at some sort of gotcha (all basically hinging on how thome didnt complain about wahoo while he was playing) that i find ridiculous. like someone changing their opinion based on new information and experiences is some sort of character flaw and not just...life
Well these polls weren't about Thome, just basic "what do you think about the logo going away?"
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Re: MLB 2018

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It looks like the cold stove is at least lukewarm with Frazier signing with the Mets and a few minor deals today. Still so far only one of the top six FA has signed though, but at least the rhetoric is starting to die down a little. I still think we're heading for an inevitable work stoppage in 2020 but I'd be shocked if all these guys aren't signed by the 2/24 mandatory deadline.
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Re: MLB 2018

Post by Zip City »

Tequila Cowboy wrote:It looks like the cold stove is at least lukewarm with Frazier signing with the Mets and a few minor deals today. Still so far only one of the top six FA has signed though, but at least the rhetoric is starting to die down a little. I still think we're heading for an inevitable work stoppage in 2020 but I'd be shocked if all these guys aren't signed by the 2/24 mandatory deadline.
It’s gojng to be ugly at the next CBA. The owners have the players bent over right now and aren’t going to want to give anything back
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Re: MLB 2018

Post by Tequila Cowboy »

Zip City wrote:
Tequila Cowboy wrote:It looks like the cold stove is at least lukewarm with Frazier signing with the Mets and a few minor deals today. Still so far only one of the top six FA has signed though, but at least the rhetoric is starting to die down a little. I still think we're heading for an inevitable work stoppage in 2020 but I'd be shocked if all these guys aren't signed by the 2/24 mandatory deadline.
It’s gojng to be ugly at the next CBA. The owners have the players bent over right now and aren’t going to want to give anything back
Yeah, I think it's going to be a long work stoppage. Wouldn't surprise me if we lose the 2020 season.
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Re: MLB 2018

Post by Shakespeare »

its almost like the players union should have put someone more experienced in charge of negotiations

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Re: MLB 2018

Post by Zip City »

Darvish to Cubs at 6/$126M

Amazing
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Re: MLB 2018

Post by Tequila Cowboy »

Zip City wrote:Darvish to Cubs at 6/$126M

Amazing
Doing a happy dance. Makes them the second best rotation in the NL and likely the deepest with Montgomery, Tseng and both Smyly and young phenom Adbert Alzolay likely ready late in the season. Woo hoo!
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Re: MLB 2018

Post by Mr. B »

Tequila Cowboy wrote:
Zip City wrote:Darvish to Cubs at 6/$126M

Amazing
Doing a happy dance. Makes them the second best rotation in the NL and likely the deepest with Montgomery, Tseng and both Smyly and young phenom Adbert Alzolay likely ready late in the season. Woo hoo!
Not sure i would spend $121 million of my own money on the contract, but happy to see it. And TC is right, our rotation is damn deep now and if one or two of those other guys hit, then we are even more solid. We'll see about the bullpen, it would help a lot if we get the Justin Wilson who played for the Tigers rather than the Justin Wilson who played for the Cubs.

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Re: MLB 2018

Post by Flying Rabbit »

As an Orioles fan, I'm used to this lukewarm off-season.

It'll be interesting if the FAs really do stage a spring training exhibition as a motley group of players looking to get signed.

Off-topic, this is nuts.
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Re: MLB 2018

Post by Flying Rabbit »

My Orioles are bringing back Tillman and signed Colby Rasmus to a minor league deal. Tillman is on a 1-year, and we'll see if he can return to form. It's really his best option in this FA signing desert of a hot stove. Rasmus, for some reason is a coveted guy by a bunch of O's front-office folks. He's been talked about for at least 2 years, so here we are. Do we need another OF? Probably not. All I can hope for is that he grows that scraggly whaler/Amish beard again.

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Re: MLB 2018

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"Officers stopped Loaiza for a minor traffic infraction Friday after he left the home he started renting recently in the Pacific Coast community of Imperial Beach, along the U.S.-Mexico border. Authorities had the vehicle under surveillance on suspicion it was used for smuggling drugs."

Maybe he's guilty, maybe he's not but which is it: Was his car under suspicion or was he stopped for a minor traffic infraction? Most likely it was a contrived stop because of the suspicion, but that essentially means the police were playing fast and loose w/ the law. I'm shocked.
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Re: MLB 2018

Post by whatwouldcooleydo? »

beantownbubba wrote:Was his car under suspicion or was he stopped for a minor traffic infraction?
perhaps he was wearing his pants three inches below the crest of his ileum.

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Re: MLB 2018

Post by Tequila Cowboy »

Image

Vin Scully racing Jackie Robinson on ice skates in 1951. Made me smile.
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Re: MLB 2018

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