MLB 2018

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Zip City
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by Zip City »

I guess the DL is changing from 15 days to 10?
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by Tequila Cowboy »

Zip City wrote:I guess the DL is changing from 15 days to 10?
Yes, but I'm unclear if the 10 day is in addition to the 15 day with further restrictions or what? Nobody seems to know for sure. This will be clarified over the next few days.
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

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Looks like Andrew McCutchen to the Nats for a package topped by the Nationals #2 prospect Victor Robles. Apparently earlier attempts by Pittsburgh asking for Giolito or Trea Turner were complete non-starters. Still Robles looks like a 5 tool player and McCutchen wasn't the same player last year. Still I assume Shakespeare will be happy. CBA done, floodgates open.

On another note anyone hoping to see Shohei Otani in MLB any time soon is going to be disappointed. The new international signing rules raise the age that international players can become unrestricted FA from 23 to 25 and caps those under that age to a total contract of $6 mil. Otani's market was expected to be between $250 mil - $300 mil. Some more on this:

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/why-t ... ng-to-mlb/

So, in summary: The new rules are great for owners and teams who don't want to pay international talent big dollars, and horrible for those of us more interested in seeing the world's best talent -- including Otani -- join the majors as soon as possible while also making their market worth.
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by Tequila Cowboy »

This is fascinating stuff for those with a statistical bent. I'm not even close to understanding it but I'm working on it.

MLB analytics guru who could be the next Nate Silver has a revolutionary new stat
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by Shakespeare »

if the mccutchen trade involves robles (at all, let alone in tandem with a top pitching prospect and potentially more), mike rizzo is nuts. with uncertainty surrounding mccutchen (is it a permanent decline, where will he play) and harper (2018 or bust?), along with werth out of the picture after 2017, they cannot afford to give up what robles might be. especially on a gamble like mccutchen returning to mvp form. the farm is just too low on position players for that

im not normally a guy to advocate holding on to prospects at all costs, and the nats should be as close to all in as possible for 2017 and 18, but robles (and turner, if hes even still a prospect) are untouchable imo

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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by whatwouldcooleydo? »

Tequila Cowboy wrote:This is fascinating stuff for those with a statistical bent. I'm not even close to understanding it but I'm working on it.

MLB analytics guru who could be the next Nate Silver has a revolutionary new stat
this is how I imagine a few of you reacted when reading about this "revolutionary new stat":

Image

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
Last edited by whatwouldcooleydo? on Thu Dec 01, 2016 6:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by whatwouldcooleydo? »

stumbled upon this via a link from a Ringer article, thought some might find it of interest, assuming you don't already frequent the site

Stats only a Sports Fan could Love
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

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Sounding like Mark Melancon to San Francisco is done. Most guesses are 4 years somewhere between $60-$64 million. That would be a record deal for a closer exceeding Jonathan Paplebon's 4/$50 mil with the Phillies. The crazy thing is the 2 more expensive closers are still on the market.
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

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Tequila Cowboy wrote:Sounding like Mark Melancon to San Francisco is done. Most guesses are 4 years somewhere between $60-$64 million. That would be a record deal for a closer exceeding Jonathan Paplebon's 4/$50 mil with the Phillies. The crazy thing is the 2 more expensive closers are still on the market.
The Giants and closers are pretty much the definition of a buyer's market.
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by beantownbubba »

beantownbubba wrote:
Tequila Cowboy wrote:Sounding like Mark Melancon to San Francisco is done. Most guesses are 4 years somewhere between $60-$64 million. That would be a record deal for a closer exceeding Jonathan Paplebon's 4/$50 mil with the Phillies. The crazy thing is the 2 more expensive closers are still on the market.
The Giants and closers are pretty much the definition of a buyer's market.
Edit: Ummmm, that would be SELLER's market. Sheesh.
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by whatwouldcooleydo? »

beantownbubba wrote:
beantownbubba wrote:
Tequila Cowboy wrote:Sounding like Mark Melancon to San Francisco is done. Most guesses are 4 years somewhere between $60-$64 million. That would be a record deal for a closer exceeding Jonathan Paplebon's 4/$50 mil with the Phillies. The crazy thing is the 2 more expensive closers are still on the market.
The Giants and closers are pretty much the definition of a buyer's market.
Edit: Ummmm, that would be SELLER's market. Sheesh.
glad to see that edit, I was beginning to wonder if I was losing my mind

adapting to the post-truth landscape is gonna be a huge hurdle for me ;)
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

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Haven't actually seen Melancon much at all, but very aware of his numbers and reputation, so this looks to be a big upgrade (to state the obvious). We wanted him at the trade deadline but lost out. I can't help but feel optimistic, virtually anything is an improvement on our poor excuse for closers last season
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

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whatwouldcooleydo? wrote:Haven't actually seen Melancon much at all, but very aware of his numbers and reputation, so this looks to be a big upgrade (to state the obvious). We wanted him at the trade deadline but lost out. I can't help but feel optimistic, virtually anything is an improvement on our poor excuse for closers last season
I've seen him pitch a lot in the NL Central and you're going to like him. He's not flashy and he's not blowing anyone away with his fastball. He throws 2 pitches, a nasty cutter that he throws at 90-91 mph and a knuckle curve that's impossible to hit when he locates. He doesn't have gaudy K/9 numbers but he doesn't walk anyone or give up a lot of HR either. The only issue I see is with his age I don't know how for how much of that contract he'll actually perform. The good news for your boys is that he has an opt out at 2 years. If he's lights out for 2 years he'll probably opt out and let those later years be someone else's problem.
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

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The Red Sox have acquired Tyler Thornburg from Milwaukee for Travis Shaw, SS Mauricio Dubon and RHP Josh Pennington. Dubon may not be an everyday SS but I like him and I think he will have a career in MLB. I haven't seen Pennington pitch but people I pay attention to think he can make it to the show as a reliever, possibly a high leverage set up guy in time. I continue to really like what Milwaukee is doing. They're the next NL Central team to make a mark. Whether that's in 2018 or shortly after remains to be seen.

Bubba and the rest of you Red Sox fans, I was impressed with Thornburg out of the pen last year. His 2.15 ERA and 2.83 FIP were solid numbers to go along with a whopping 12.09 K/9 in 67 innings. You'd like to see the BB/9 come down from 3.36 especially now that he'll be pitching in the AL East, but he was a 2 fWAR pitcher in 2016 so he's a quality arm. I think you'll like him.
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

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Tequila Cowboy wrote:The Red Sox have acquired Tyler Thornburg from Milwaukee for Travis Shaw, SS Mauricio Dubon and RHP Josh Pennington. Dubon may not be an everyday SS but I like him and I think he will have a career in MLB. I haven't seen Pennington pitch but people I pay attention to think he can make it to the show as a reliever, possibly a high leverage set up guy in time. I continue to really like what Milwaukee is doing. They're the next NL Central team to make a mark. Whether that's in 2018 or shortly after remains to be seen.

Bubba and the rest of you Red Sox fans, I was impressed with Thornburg out of the pen last year. His 2.15 ERA and 2.83 FIP were solid numbers to go along with a whopping 12.09 K/9 in 67 innings. You'd like to see the BB/9 come down from 3.36 especially now that he'll be pitching in the AL East, but he was a 2 fWAR pitcher in 2016 so he's a quality arm. I think you'll like him.
Milwaukee might as well be the Japanese League as far as my familiarity w/ their roster goes, so I'm just looking at these numbers. Obviously I love the K/9 and am more than a little concerned about the BB/9 but this is theoretically what the Sox do: Look for players who are undervalued because of a big flaw and then fix that flaw. Here's hoping...
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by whatwouldcooleydo? »

Tequila Cowboy wrote:
whatwouldcooleydo? wrote:Haven't actually seen Melancon much at all, but very aware of his numbers and reputation, so this looks to be a big upgrade (to state the obvious). We wanted him at the trade deadline but lost out. I can't help but feel optimistic, virtually anything is an improvement on our poor excuse for closers last season
I've seen him pitch a lot in the NL Central and you're going to like him. He's not flashy and he's not blowing anyone away with his fastball. He throws 2 pitches, a nasty cutter that he throws at 90-91 mph and a knuckle curve that's impossible to hit when he locates. He doesn't have gaudy K/9 numbers but he doesn't walk anyone or give up a lot of HR either. The only issue I see is with his age I don't know how for how much of that contract he'll actually perform. The good news for your boys is that he has an opt out at 2 years. If he's lights out for 2 years he'll probably opt out and let those later years be someone else's problem.
the big question:

what's his DRA?
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

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I can't make head or tales out of the that DRA stat. I stayed up until midnight the other night trying to sort it out. It might be ready to change the game but it ain't ready for me.

Oh and the real news:

Chris Sale to Boston for Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Victor Diaz and Louis Basabe. I don't know anything about the latter two but Moncada is the number one prospect in the game. The question is did the White Sox get enough?
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

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Tequila Cowboy wrote:I can't make head or tales out of the that DRA stat. I stayed up until midnight the other night trying to sort it out. It might be ready to change the game but it ain't ready for me.

Oh and the real news:

Chris Sale to Boston for Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Victor Diaz and Louis Basabe. I don't know anything about the latter two but Moncada is the number one prospect in the game. The question is did the White Sox get enough?
The mood here in my little corner of this part of the world seems to be cautiously optimistic about the trade. There is the usual worry about pitchers holding up long term, but the big question mark is Moncada: It's hard to evaluate what it means to lose the "consensus best prospect in baseball" and in the modern game we've all been trained to value prospects more highly than used to be the case, so there's some underlying concern. What does Moncado have to turn out to be to make this a good or bad deal for either club (obviously it also depends in part on how Sale and the others work out, but let's stay theoretical for a moment). If Moncado is Travis Shaw, that's a huge win for Boston. If he's Brock Holt, it's still all Boston. Even Kevin Youkilis (a guy I loved) would still be a win for boston. Wade Boggs? Manny Muchado? George Brett or Mike Schmidt? He's young and he's still all potential so anything is possible and barring a complete meltdown by Sale physically or mentally it's going to take at least 5 years to know what the east coast sox gave up and how the deal worked out. Kopech is the wild card in the deal. Everyone loves his stuff but will he pull it all together? I'm sure a stathead can tell me the exact odds, but my impression is that Kopech's type fall short a lot more often than they get over the hump. But if he does...
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

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Had I been Boston I probably wouldn't have traded Moncada, I would have traded Benintendi instead even if it took one more guy like a Swihart or Devers in the mix. I think both are going to be MLB players for a long time but if I have a choice between a switch hitting infielder that projects as a true 5 tool player and a lefthanded OF/DH type with high OPS potential but probably not a lot of power, I'm taking the toolsy every time. Every. Single. Time. The thing is though that Cuban players seem to carry an inherent risk of being high ceiling/low floor guys and, like I said in a conversation with StevieRay yesterday, the Red Sox were just burned pretty badly in the Rusney Castillo experiment which I'm sure colored this decision. As far as Kopech goes I'm a velocity hound, I'm of the view that you can't teach velo but you can teach a guy how to pitch. This is a reason why I was so slow to warm to Kyle Hendricks who has no velocity to speak of but can clearly pitch. If you can pitch in the mid to high 90's, and Kopech has thrown a pitch as high as 105 mph(!), command is less important than if you're pitching in the low 90's. The major scouting/stats sites are very split on Kopech some projecting him as a starter with TOR potential and some seeing him as a relief arm. While everyone grades his fastball out at somewhere between 60-70 his overall grades range from 45-60 depending on which site you look at. So both Moncada and Kopech come with considerable risk but very high reward potential to the White Sox.

As for the Red Sox I don't see a lot of short term downside but that farm cupboard is going to be pretty barren come say 2020. Of course that gives them a 3 year window with the 2nd best pitcher in the game in Sale, the 5th best in Price and a Cy Young winner in Porcello. Not so bad. I don't buy the fear that Sale's mechanics will get him hurt to the point of of multiple surgeries because that's been predicted since he came up and hasn't happened. Dude is a horse with amazing stuff. If you're playing for a short term window this was a brilliant play and Dombrowski is known for this kind of thing. They're the favorite to win the AL in 2017 by a wide margin now.

On the White Sox side I think they did very well. It's not everyday you can trade for the #1 prospect in the game, a high upside arm and three other nice pieces. Sale did them no good. They've tried to build a winner around the pitching core of Sale and Quintana for three years and have failed miserably. Time for a new plan. This was a great start for them but the real test is going to be what they do from here. They have an opportunity to build an instant farm system but, outside of pitching, they have shown a decided weakness in developing young players. Given that their best bet is to trade everyone for ready or near talent. Jose Abreu, Adam Eaton, Todd Frazier, Jose Quintana, David Robertson and maybe even Melky Cabrera should all bring back those kind of guys albeit not in the quantity of quality of the Sale trade. If they do this right, and given the high upsides of Kopech, Carlos Rodon and Carson Fulmer in their pitching ranks, they could see themselves competing as early as 2019. Of course their FO is a cluster fuck but if Rick Hahn is truly in charge now, and these moves seem to indicate he is, then maybe they have a chance.

God I love the winter meetings. Makes me all warm and fuzzy inside even when my team is just making smaller moves like Soler for Wade Davis. I like that move a lot by the way but that's a post for a later time.
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

Post by whatwouldcooleydo? »

if all this talk of Wade Davis to Cubs is legit, does that make it a safe assumption that Chapman is going back to Yankees?
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

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whatwouldcooleydo? wrote:if all this talk of Wade Davis to Cubs is legit, does that make it a safe assumption that Chapman is going back to Yankees?
The Cubs have never been in on Chapman. There was never any extension talk from the day he got there and there was no outreach when he became a FA. They didn't like his body language or remarks when he was asked to pitch multiple innings in the playoffs and I don't think he ever quite fit the Maddon mold. The irony of course is that in Davis they have a guy who absolutely can't pitch anything but the 9th. I think they looked at Jansen but they were never paying $80-$90 million for a closer. they believe, and I agree with them, that Carl Edwards Jr., cost controlled for 6 more years, is the closer of the future but also that he isn't quite there yet. Davis is a stop gap and a way to make sure they have more expiring contracts in order to spend on starting pitching for 2018 while still going all in for 2017.

As far as Chapman to the Yankees, I think that's always where he was going and they have an offer in to both he and Jansen. I think those are "shit or get off the pot" offers and whichever takes one first goes there. I think the other goes to Miami for reasons I can't possibly fathom except that Loria wants one of them. The Dodgers could get fucked here.
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

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Tequila Cowboy wrote:the Dodgers could get fucked here.
Image
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

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Tequila Cowboy wrote:I can't make head or tales out of the that DRA stat. I stayed up until midnight the other night trying to sort it out.
time to call in JVV



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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

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So Chapman is a Yankee, Wade Davis is a Cub, Kenneth Jansen is apparently a Marlin leaving the Dodgers and the "all in" Nationals without closers. Now both of those teams have relationships with the White Sox so I suppose Robertson is a possibility but why wouldn't the Nationals have made Robertson part of the Eaton deal? Maybe they just can't part with anymore prospects? They also have a great working relationship with Scott Boras so maybe Greg Holland is their answer? Fascinating stuff.

Oh and how about those White Sox? In two trades they've gone from no farm system to top 5 and they still have Jose Quintana, Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier, Melky Cabrera and the aforementioned David Robertson to deal. The White Sox actually executing an actionable plan with foresight? 2016 is truly bizarro world.

Another theme of the meetings has been the dividing line of contenders, rebuilders and what are they thinking teams. From last years contenders the D-Backs, Royals, Tigers, White Sox and Rays are likely no longer viable while the Rockies have joined the hunt and I absolutely don't understand how the Marlins think they can contend with Edison Volquez as their best pitcher. The sad part is this is the most baseball excitement until those magical words "pitchers and catchers report".
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

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So Chapman is a Yankee, Wade Davis is a Cub, Kenneth Jansen is apparently a Marlin leaving the Dodgers and the "all in" Nationals without closers. Now both of those teams have relationships with the White Sox so I suppose Robertson is a possibility but why wouldn't the Nationals have made Robertson part of the Eaton deal? Maybe they just can't part with anymore prospects? They also have a great working relationship with Scott Boras so maybe Greg Holland is their answer? Fascinating stuff.

Oh and how about those White Sox? In two trades they've gone from no farm system to top 5 and they still have Jose Quintana, Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier, Melky Cabrera and the aforementioned David Robertson to deal. The White Sox actually executing an actionable plan with foresight? 2016 is truly bizarro world.

Another theme of the meetings has been the dividing line of contenders, rebuilders and what are they thinking teams. From last years contenders the D-Backs, Royals, Tigers, White Sox and Rays are likely no longer viable while the Rockies have joined the hunt and I absolutely don't understand how the Marlins think they can contend with Edison Volquez as their best pitcher. The sad part is this is the most baseball excitement until those magical words "pitchers and catchers report".

edit: Jansen to the Marlins is not done. Both the Dodgers and Nationals are still in the derby. There's a rumor that Washington is getting a 5/$95 mil offer ready including some deferred money. This will be larger than the Chapman deal but with the deferred money not quite as valuable.
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

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So I think y'all think I'm making some of this shit up when I say my fellow Cubs fans are crazy but I assure you I am not. People are pissed about trading Soler for Wade DAvis, they're pissed that Chapman signed in NY and in one of the forums I'm in there is this thread:

Where does Maddon's Game 7 rank among the worst managed games in postseason history?

Now, truth be told, I had my issues with some of Maddon's moves in the WS but the bottom line is that they WON THE MOTHERFUCKIN' WORLD SERIES. Here's the latest comment from that oh so glorious thread from a Cubs fan:

The whole series was badly managed because Maddon tried to out Francona Francona with his bullpen instead of riding the staff that got him there, his starters.

Strop/Edwards/Chapman vs the Indians bullpen was not favorable. It was his starters that gave him the edge.

Pulling Hendricks was one of the worst decisions I have ever seen on the baseball field, but it was exacerbated by bad decisions in the previous 3 games. He could have had a fresh bullpen ready to close out game 7, instead of a tired shell. The only thing that saved him was Francona's tired shell of a bullpen that had to do that shit for 3 weeks just to get there.

Kyle was used poorly on the road. The catchers were used poorly in game 7. It would have been comical to see a team with 3 catchers AND Schwarber run out of them.
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

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HOF voter goes all Axl Rose, challenges Curt Schilling to "get in the ring!"

That is where the question of Curt Schilling’s candidacy comes up for me this year. I have voted for Schilling in the past, based on his superior career WAR (80.7, higher than that of Tom Glavine, Don Sutton, Jim Palmer, Bob Feller, and yes, even Sandy Koufax) and his outstanding post-season numbers.

His personal views have often troubled and at times offended me — he is an unabashed collector of Nazi memorabilia — but I have kept that out of my thought process.

Until, that is, about a month ago, when he retweeted a photo of a man wearing a T-shirt advocating the lynching of journalists, with the comment, “OK, so much awesome here . . .”

Beyond the offensiveness of any reference to lynching, which is profoundly racist in itself, is the threat to the men and women in my profession. That is something I take personally and if Curt Schilling really wants to “lynch” journalists, he can start with me, in a boxing ring with 10-ounce gloves on. That will put an end to his sick little fantasy.
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

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With Edward Encarnacion in Cleveland on a great deal for the Indians does this vault them over Boston for favorite in the AL? With a healthy Michael Brantley, Danny Sanchez and Carlos Carrasco I kind of think it does. Boston needs a couple solid bullpen arms to be the favorite I think.
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

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Tequila Cowboy wrote:With Edward Encarnacion in Cleveland on a great deal for the Indians does this vault them over Boston for favorite in the AL? With a healthy Michael Brantley, Danny Sanchez and Carlos Carrasco I kind of think it does. Boston needs a couple solid bullpen arms to be the favorite I think.
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Re: MLB 2017 and Hot Stove

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The 2016 Chicago Cubs and their Most Similar Team

The most similar team to the 2016 Cubs was the 2012 Tampa Bay Rays? Fascinating. Baseball is a strange game.
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