MLB 2018

[Tequila Cowboy]

but my point is theres no easy solution to so many underperforming lineup spots. thats the kind of manager criticism that misses the point. if zimmerman were the only weak link, move him down a few spots. thats an easy fix. putting a reliable bat behind harper while extending the black hole bottom of the order is not. unless murphy doubles harper home after every walk, itll remain tough to score runs, so until some other bats wake up and force the issue i have no problem with dusty sticking with zimmerman

To me this is one of Dusty's glaring weaknesses. You say he has very little choice but he could shift the lineup daily and play matchups and then start playing the hot hand. I'd bet fairly good money that he looks at very little daily data in setting lineups. Look, you've got a very good squad and Dusty's set a solid town in that clubhouse but he isn't the most creative guy in the world. One thing they should do tomorrow us call up Trea Turner who's off to a smoking start at Syracuse slashing .321/.391/.455 with 2 HR while Espinoza is doing squat with the big club. I think the Nats are the best team in the East but the Mets are going to there all year too so your boys are going to have to dig deep.

[Zip City]

Dusty definitely settles into a lineup and rides it come hell or high water. He says that Zimmerman's "past performance" has earned him the clean up spot. Well he's OPSing 1/2 of what Harper is, so of course everyone will walk Harper. He also has a knack for putting really low OBP guys at the top of the order

[Tequila Cowboy]

i know people hate the storyline of Scott Boras' clients generally going for the big bucks in FA and want to point to the Strasburg contract as evidence against that but not so fast. I just heard this number, and I had read a similar number last year but didn't feel like digging for it; over the last 20 years just over 90% of Boras' clients in the top 25% of MLB at their position go all the way to FA, and 72% of players in the top 50% at their position do the same. When you sign with Boras its for generational wealth. What's interesting here is that Boras may have cost another client, Jake Arrieta, money with this deal. Jake is older and had been allegedly looking for 6 years at $35 mil AAV from the Cubs who haven't budged off 4 years at this point. I think most were assuming Strasburg would top $200 mil. At any rate this deal is out f the norm for Boras' guys.

[Shakespeare]

i know people hate the storyline of Scott Boras' clients generally going for the big bucks in FA and want to point to the Strasburg contract as evidence against that but not so fast. I just heard this number, and I had read a similar number last year but didn't feel like digging for it; over the last 20 years just over 90% of Boras' clients in the top 25% of MLB at their position go all the way to FA, and 72% of players in the top 50% at their position do the same.

ok, whats your point here though? no one denies that most boras clients go to free agency, but a lot of folks act like its a rule that they do. strasburg was his 2016 offseason jewel and he eschewed it completely. that shouldnt be brushed off, especially not in washington.

but my point is theres no easy solution to so many underperforming lineup spots. thats the kind of manager criticism that misses the point. if zimmerman were the only weak link, move him down a few spots. thats an easy fix. putting a reliable bat behind harper while extending the black hole bottom of the order is not. unless murphy doubles harper home after every walk, itll remain tough to score runs, so until some other bats wake up and force the issue i have no problem with dusty sticking with zimmerman

To me this is one of Dusty's glaring weaknesses. You say he has very little choice but he could shift the lineup daily and play matchups and then start playing the hot hand. I'd bet fairly good money that he looks at very little daily data in setting lineups. Look, you've got a very good squad and Dusty's set a solid town in that clubhouse but he isn't the most creative guy in the world. One thing they should do tomorrow us call up Trea Turner who's off to a smoking start at Syracuse slashing .321/.391/.455 with 2 HR while Espinoza is doing squat with the big club. I think the Nats are the best team in the East but the Mets are going to there all year too so your boys are going to have to dig deep.

turner will be up the second his service clock allows it (may 31st, from what i recall, thanks to a spectaculrly ill-advised call up last september), and you should know that given your fondness for following prospects. thats been an open secret since last year. its not fair to hold that against dusty when if he had his way turner would have made the openign day roster. he raved about the kid during spring training. its a mike rizzo move and anyone who seriously thinks he hasnt played it as he should doesnt understand the realities of the game. thats just baseball in 2016. you dont throw away that extra year of control to make a desperation move for a team half a game out of first without even playing their main rival once yet.

im also not really a big believer in constantly shuffling a lineup around to play matchups, and ryan zimmerman has earned more than a months slack. it sure isnt pretty at the moment but i dont think overreacting because of a 4 game sweep, on the road, to the best team in baseball, currently playing above even their talent level, is the answer. the opening day roster is just now getting settling in so i think they can afford some more time.

[Tequila Cowboy]

Mea culpa on Turner. I had heard on MLB radio that he was past the service time date and that they must be waiting on Super 2 and I assumed that info was accurate.* If it wasn't then sure you wait, Super 2 on the other doesn't make much sense for a team that has doled out $400 mil to pitchers in the last 2 years.

As far as shifting lineups I don't consider that panicking. Why not try Murphy based on matchups? Watching Maddon make these changes on an almost daily basis has made me a believer in this kind of thing and I've always been critical of Dusty for being way too rigid in his lineups particularly when the reason is deference to veterans. This year Maddon has settled in on Rizzo-Bryant in the middle of the order but he still shifts guys around. I can be critical there too though as I think he's stuck with Heyward too long in the 2 hole (on most days he has batted 6th some). I think you study the data daily and decide where guys should hit.

On the Boras thing I call 90% plus a rule and the Strasburg contract the exception that proves the rule. I'm not sure why the deal was signed, maybe it was comfort on Strasburg's part, maybe he figured $175 mil was enough and if he was leaving $20-$30 mil on the table so be it or maybe he and/or Boras are risk averse based on his mechanics. On the other hand Mike Maddux is as good a pitching coach as there is and I'm sure he consulted with the FO on Strasburg. It's a strange deal with strange timing, that's really all I'm saying.

* I looked this up and you are 100% correct. They have to wait until 6/1 for the extra year of control. The MLB guys really should have known that.

[Tequila Cowboy]

the best team in baseball, currently playing above even their talent level

Oh, I had to address this as well. As gaudy as the Cubs record is they are actually under performing their Pythagorean win total as it says they should be 25-5. I'm not sure they're outperforming their talent either, I just think they're laser focused and buy into the process 100%. I think for the Cubs, from top to bottom in the organization, the process is everything.

On another numbers note the Royals look to be finally regressing to the mean after far outperforming their numbers, particularly base runs, for two full years. Actually at 15-16 they are still outperforming their numbers some as their Pythagorean total is 13-17.

[Shakespeare]

no worries. people here wont stop beating the turner drum and i get aggravated about it. idk how you handle this baseball blog thing ive sworn it off already this year

super 2 is indeed meaningless. turner does have a bit of work to do on his glove, but he'll be up soon. that trade was an absolute fleecing by rizzo. turner plus joe ross, who looks to be entering top of rotation form already, for a corner outfielder with no place to play here? come on.

my gut tells me strasburg signed it to guarantee himself a huge payday regardless, while buying himself 3 more years after this one to prove hes healthy and dominant in time to cash in again. very safe gamble. for the nats, they lock him in through age 31 at a likely below market rate (havent seen the yearly breakdown yet though) without committing so much money that if he falls off a bit and stays the course (unlikely) it breaks the bank. again, safe gamble. still a shocker, but i get it from both sides. its silly to read too much into it, but the fact that boras negotiated at all, let alone during a walk year, isnt insignificant, even if it is the exception that proves the rule

and that wasnt meant to diminish the cubs at all. theyre no fluke, but theyre catching all the breaks too, stuff that goes beyond "the process". fly balls into seagulls, harper (smartly) refusing to run into a wall for an out, etc. add that to the talent and the philosophy and its a scary combo

[Shakespeare]

strasburg will be paid $15m/year with $70m deferred

im not sure how deferred money works if the player opts out but strasburgs prime years for $15m each looks like a steal

the structure also continues to hammer home how badly mlb needs to resolve the masn situation

[Tequila Cowboy]

strasburg will be paid $15m/year with $70m deferred

im not sure how deferred money works if the player opts out but strasburgs prime years for $15m each looks like a steal

the structure also continues to hammer home how badly mlb needs to resolve the masn situation

I think it's a good deal as long as it doesn't hinder them from signing Harper. Your team looks likes it's going to have a really good starting staff for a while but that's not going to mean much if Harper bolts. I've always assumed he would be a Yankee but I'm not sure the Yankees are going there even after the big contracts expire. The numbers that have been bandied about for Harper have been absurd, I've actually heard $500 million bandied about, but if he's not the best player in baseball he's in a very small group along with Mike Trout and maybe Carlos Correa and if Giancarlo Stanton got $325 million 2 years ago who knows what Harper could fetch? Anyway if I were you I would be very happy to have an ownership group with the commitment to win that they seem to have.

[Tequila Cowboy]

The Cubs have lost a game and there is panic in Chicago.

I think there will be Cubs fans that will not make it through this season.

[Tequila Cowboy]

Impressive performance from Max Scherzer last night with 20 Ks against a team that knows him very well. I was even more impressed with his post game interview where he talked about his excitement, the adrenaline surge and just how much fun he was having. With so many baseball players who accomplish great feats they come out after as if it was just another day at the office. Scherzer made clear that it wasn't. Good on him.

Oh, in watching some of that game I couldn't help but notice that Daniel Murphy is now hitting 4th. Huh, where had I heard that suggestion?

So the Cubs lost two games yesterday breaking their 8 game winning streak and also their streak of not losing 2 in a row all season. Relax Cubs fans the sky is not falling, "June swoon" is not on the horizon. This is baseball and they were due for a correction. No, they were never going to win 130 games. I swear Chicago sports fans are the dumbest on the planet.

[Tequila Cowboy]

Impressive performance from Max Scherzer last night with 20 Ks against a team that knows him very well. I was even more impressed with his post game interview where he talked about his excitement, the adrenaline surge and just how much fun he was having. With so many baseball players who accomplish great feats they come out after as if it was just another day at the office. Scherzer made clear that it wasn't. Good on him.

Oh, in watching some of that game I couldn't help but notice that Daniel Murphy is now hitting 4th. Huh, where had I heard that suggestion?

So the Cubs lost two games yesterday breaking their 8 game winning streak and also their streak of not losing 2 in a row all season. Relax Cubs fans the sky is not falling, "June swoon" is not on the horizon. This is baseball and they were due for a correction. No, they were never going to win 130 games. I swear Chicago sports fans are the dumbest on the planet.

[StevieRay]

I swear Chicago sports fans are the dumbest on the planet.

Spoken by someone who has obviously never listened to sports radio in Boston.

[Tequila Cowboy]

I swear Chicago sports fans are the dumbest on the planet.

Spoken by someone who has obviously never listened to sports radio in Boston.

Well I know you've listened to both so I bow to your superior recognition of meatballs.

[DiamondDave]

Houston, we have a fucking problem.

[Tequila Cowboy]

Houston, we have a fucking problem.

They've looked a little better lately but you can't lose games 11-1 and your best pitcher should not have a 5.85 ERA/4.04 FIP. Sorry man, I don't get it.

[Tequila Cowboy]

I'm guessing the Red Sox fans here are pretty happy with Jackie Bradley Jr. this year. 18 game hit streak, slashing .328/.371/.607 with 6 HR and a 1.2 fWAR after only posting 2.4 all last year. His walk rate is a little low at 5.3% vs a career 8.2% and his BABIP is high at .391 so his numbers will correct some both for good and ill but still this kid is a player.

[beantownbubba]

Yeah, how 'bout those Red Sox??!!! But you better be in your seat by game time: Their first inning numbers are extraordinary. The current pace is unsustainable but it sure is fun to watch and there's no reason to think that the offense won't remain at the top of the league (just not double figure scoring every game lol).

More important than the "11" last nite was the "1" for David Price. Hopefully that was the turn-the-corner moment. What a strange match-up between 2 struggling mega star pitchers. At least the right one came away unscathed.

People here are over the moon about Jackie Bradley, and why not? Dude always had the talent and he's been a pleasure to watch in the field from day 1. I'm not sure the BABIP is totally relevant here: I've watched a fair number of his at bats and we're talking balls hit over outfielders, not between or in front. The more likely unsustainable part is the .600 SLG. I guess it gets you to the same place in the end but what the hell.

I didn't follow all the discussion of Strasburg's contract, here or on the 'net, but I have to assume that the basic message is the only consistently correct one and the ones that fans most consistently ignore: Agents do what their clients (the players) want them to do, including being the lightning rod for fan anger.

[whatwouldcooleydo?]

Schilling is for Trump: never saw that coming

[Tequila Cowboy]

Cubs closer Hector Rondon has compile a .69 ERA and has apparently broken the FIP statistic at -.16 .

[Zip City]

Cubs closer Hector Rondon has compile a .69 ERA and has apparently broken the FIP statistic at -.16 .

and the offense is actively trying to give him no save opportunities. They have a dugout game called "Fuck the Closer" where the goal is to never give Rondon a save chance

[DiamondDave]

Houston, we have a fucking problem.

They've looked a little better lately but you can't lose games 11-1 and your best pitcher should not have a 5.85 ERA/4.04 FIP. Sorry man, I don't get it.

I have no arguments. I'm shell shocked to say the least.

[whatwouldcooleydo?]

Max Scherzer’s 20-Strikeout Game Was Weirder Than Any Other

[beantownbubba]

Even by Big Papi's storybook standards, yesterday was fairly amazing. An early HR closed a large deficit and moved him past Ernie Banks & Eddie Matthews on the all-time list ; a 9th inning triple (!) tied the game and an 11th inning double won the game in fine walk off fashion and raised Papi's lifetime total to a mere 600 doubles.

[Tequila Cowboy]

Even by Big Papi's storybook standards, yesterday was fairly amazing. An early HR closed a large deficit and moved him past Ernie Banks & Eddie Matthews on the all-time list ; a 9th inning triple (!) tied the game and an 11th inning double won the game in fine walk off fashion and raised Papi's lifetime total to a mere 600 doubles.

UR texted me and asked for the three players to hit at least 500 HR and 600 doubles, I knew Ortiz because I knew he was close on doubles, but I swung and miss at the other two. Hank Aaron and Barry Bonds. That's some impressive company and Big Papi is pretty impressive his own damn self.

The Cubs now have a 9 game lead over their two closest rivals in St. Louis and Pittsburgh. While I know intellectually they'll get closer that's still damned amazing on 5/15.

[Zip City]

I'm not convinced they'll get closer. The Cubs will cool down, but neither the Cards nor the Bucs have impressed

[whatwouldcooleydo?]

Blue Jays/Rangers: whole lotta brawlin' goin' on

[jr29]

Blue Jays/Rangers: whole lotta brawlin' goin' on

Was the bat flip and the hard slide worth the dental bill ?
Then he does his postgame interview and says he didn't expect a punch coming. BULLSHIT

[beantownbubba]

UR texted me and asked for the three players to hit at least 500 HR and 600 doubles, I knew Ortiz because I knew he was close on doubles, but I swung and miss at the other two. Hank Aaron and Barry Bonds. That's some impressive company and Big Papi is pretty impressive his own damn self.

It's kind of amazing who's not on this list: Ruth & Williams for sure, but wouldn't you think Willie Mays would be a lock? Manny Ramirez? A Rod? Junior? The 500/600 club is not exactly major conversational fodder among fans but I guess that's because there aren't a lot of people to talk about. The more you look at it and the more you consider who is and isn't in the more remarkable the feat seems.

Everyone who participates in this thread will probably enjoy this book, as would most who mostly lurk, assuming there are some of those: The Only Rule Is It Has To Work by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller recounts their season as 2 statheads allowed to apply SABRmetrics to an actual team in an actual professional league. The last 2 chapters lag badly imho but until then it's a fascinating look at how things work (and don't) behind the scenes. You don't need to be into SABRmetrics to enjoy it, either.

[Tequila Cowboy]

Suspensions for Rougned Odor and Jose Bautista are expected to be announced shortly with Odor expected to get a much harsher penalty. I sort of get that but they both intended to injure the other correct? Best guess is 10 games for Odor and 3 games for Bautista.

Oh and for your informational pleasure did you know that Rougned Odor has a younger brother, also in the Rangers system, named Rougned Odor? They are sons of...wait for it...Rougned Odor.