The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

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jr29
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by jr29 »

beantownbubba wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:06 am
The surprise possibility that Lauren Boebert might lose was perhaps the most delicious moment of all the stories coming out of the election. It looks like it's not going to happen (speaking of slow vote counting!) but oh my, what might have been. Especially if the Dems had been smarter about where they spent their money (see also WI Senate, Ohio Senate ...)
That race still sent a message. I think I heard that it is like a Republican +15 district.

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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by John A Arkansawyer »

beantownbubba wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:06 pm
John A Arkansawyer wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 6:28 pm
beantownbubba wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:06 am
Especially if the Dems had been smarter about where they spent their money (see also WI Senate, Ohio Senate ...)
I'm curious what spending you'd've moved around for the Senate.
The "to" is fairly easy: WI and OH most obviously. I think AZ was well funded but more couldn't have hurt. Where that money should have come from I have not looked at.
Arizona has been called for Kelly, so I'll say enough was spent there.

This was a pretty remarkable election, one of the best midterms for the party in power in history. The Democrats are likely to keep the Senate, and would keep the House if it weren't for Cuomo's judges knocking down the New York redistricting plan. They might still keep it anyway.
The sooner we put those assholes in the grave&piss on the dirt above it, the better off we'll be

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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by beantownbubba »

Zip City wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:35 pm
beantownbubba wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 11:06 pm
John A Arkansawyer wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 6:28 pm


I'm curious what spending you'd've moved around for the Senate.
The "to" is fairly easy: WI and OH most obviously. I think AZ was well funded but more couldn't have hurt. Where that money should have come from I have not looked at.
I can't imagine Tim Ryan having MORE ads in Ohio than he did. They were on constantly
Obviously I’m not there. Just going by what I’ve heard and read.
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beantownbubba
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by beantownbubba »

jr29 wrote:
Sat Nov 12, 2022 8:08 am
beantownbubba wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:06 am
The surprise possibility that Lauren Boebert might lose was perhaps the most delicious moment of all the stories coming out of the election. It looks like it's not going to happen (speaking of slow vote counting!) but oh my, what might have been. Especially if the Dems had been smarter about where they spent their money (see also WI Senate, Ohio Senate ...)
That race still sent a message. I think I heard that it is like a Republican +15 district.
Message sent, but what will she/they hear? What I read is that Borbert’s district is partially new but the gerrymandering resulted in a district that went for Trump in 2020 by 8% more than the original district. It wouldn’t be surprising if the original district was at least +7 for Trump so that seems reasonably consistent.
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jr29
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by jr29 »

beantownbubba wrote:
Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:20 am
jr29 wrote:
Sat Nov 12, 2022 8:08 am
beantownbubba wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:06 am
The surprise possibility that Lauren Boebert might lose was perhaps the most delicious moment of all the stories coming out of the election. It looks like it's not going to happen (speaking of slow vote counting!) but oh my, what might have been. Especially if the Dems had been smarter about where they spent their money (see also WI Senate, Ohio Senate ...)
That race still sent a message. I think I heard that it is like a Republican +15 district.
Message sent, but what will she/they hear? What I read is that Borbert’s district is partially new but the gerrymandering resulted in a district that went for Trump in 2020 by 8% more than the original district. It wouldn’t be surprising if the original district was at least +7 for Trump so that seems reasonably consistent.
I have the same question.
I hope some of these shitheads realize that a majority of us want calm. Let's bitch and moan about entitlements, but stop the machine gunning of vitriol.

BTW, Smokin' Joe Biden keeps having an incredibly successful unsuccessful presidency.

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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by John A Arkansawyer »

I just saw a number that surprised me greatly: The total popular vote for the House is led by Republicans, 52 million to 47 million. That's a lot. I'm not sure what it means (other than nothing electorally).
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by jr29 »

John A Arkansawyer wrote:
Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:38 am
I just saw a number that surprised me greatly: The total popular vote for the House is led by Republicans, 52 million to 47 million. That's a lot. I'm not sure what it means (other than nothing electorally).
I heard that the reason for that has a lot to do with the number of Republican incumbents who ran unopposed.

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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by jr29 »

jr29 wrote:
Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:42 am
John A Arkansawyer wrote:
Sat Nov 12, 2022 9:38 am
I just saw a number that surprised me greatly: The total popular vote for the House is led by Republicans, 52 million to 47 million. That's a lot. I'm not sure what it means (other than nothing electorally).
I heard that the reason for that has a lot to do with the number of Republican incumbents who ran unopposed.
Here's a piece from a couple months ago. Republicans had a big advantage in unopposed races and races with no major party opposition. Add that to the fact that they will gain seats and you have your popular vote disparity.
https://www.270towin.com/news/2022/09/1 ... _1419.html

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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by beantownbubba »

A different take on money in political campaigns:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... 00007F7AB9
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by beantownbubba »

Now that control of the Senate is a non-issue in Georgia, does Herschel Walker's bid go down in flames because the reality of Walker's lack of qualifications is no longer outweighed by broader concerns, or does the lowered intensity/impact of the race change voters calculations in other as yet unforeseen ways? I assume the former but am always leery of the conventional wisdom. Luckily we won't have to wait too long to find out and by then, who knows?, we may even have the full House results.
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by John A Arkansawyer »

beantownbubba wrote:
Sun Nov 13, 2022 9:13 am
Now that control of the Senate is a non-issue in Georgia, does Herschel Walker's bid go down in flames because the reality of Walker's lack of qualifications is no longer outweighed by broader concerns, or does the lowered intensity/impact of the race change voters calculations in other as yet unforeseen ways? I assume the former but am always leery of the conventional wisdom. Luckily we won't have to wait too long to find out and by then, who knows?, we may even have the full House results.
How many Georgia Republicans held their nose to keep the Senate? How many of them won't bother with the lower stakes? On the other hand, getting Warnock in means you only have to convince Manchin OR Sinema and not BOTH of them to do business. That's so much easier, and so worth voting for.
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by jr29 »

John A Arkansawyer wrote:
Sun Nov 13, 2022 9:53 am
beantownbubba wrote:
Sun Nov 13, 2022 9:13 am
Now that control of the Senate is a non-issue in Georgia, does Herschel Walker's bid go down in flames because the reality of Walker's lack of qualifications is no longer outweighed by broader concerns, or does the lowered intensity/impact of the race change voters calculations in other as yet unforeseen ways? I assume the former but am always leery of the conventional wisdom. Luckily we won't have to wait too long to find out and by then, who knows?, we may even have the full House results.
How many Georgia Republicans held their nose to keep the Senate? How many of them won't bother with the lower stakes? On the other hand, getting Warnock in means you only have to convince Manchin OR Sinema and not BOTH of them to do business. That's so much easier, and so worth voting for.
And getting Warnock in means a very difficult map in 2024 is a bit less difficult. Dems don't need to let off the accelerator right now.

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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by brettac1 »

beantownbubba wrote:
Fri Nov 11, 2022 9:06 am
The surprise possibility that Lauren Boebert might lose was perhaps the most delicious moment of all the stories coming out of the election. It looks like it's not going to happen (speaking of slow vote counting!) but oh my, what might have been. Especially if the Dems had been smarter about where they spent their money (see also WI Senate, Ohio Senate ...)
Absolutely. They set money on fire in FL in an unwinnable race. WI was definitely in reach with more boots on the ground.

Hell, they would have kept the house if they didn't botch the NY map. Maloney losing is comical, though.
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by pearlbeer »

beantownbubba wrote:
Sun Nov 13, 2022 9:13 am
Now that control of the Senate is a non-issue in Georgia, does Herschel Walker's bid go down in flames because the reality of Walker's lack of qualifications is no longer outweighed by broader concerns, or does the lowered intensity/impact of the race change voters calculations in other as yet unforeseen ways? I assume the former but am always leery of the conventional wisdom. Luckily we won't have to wait too long to find out and by then, who knows?, we may even have the full House results.
I'm optimistic about GA. The voters there must be deeply fatigued, and I feel sorry for them. But - Herschel is Trump's guy and I'm not sure how much the GOP will allow Walker to be tied to him during the run off. Additionally, the R voters don't have a compelling reason to fight the fatigue and show up as the Senate is decided. Oh, I guess you could also add in that Herschel is potentially one of the worst Senate candidates ever fielded.
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by beantownbubba »

John A Arkansawyer wrote:
Sat Nov 12, 2022 8:37 am
Arizona has been called for Kelly, so I'll say enough was spent there.
Earlier this week in the WaPo Erik Wemple raised the very good question, whatever happened to all that talk about the problems w/ Democratic messaging? I was one of the many people raising concerns about that messaging.

But just like the question of whether the Dems spent enough money in AZ, the question of whether their messaging is on target and all it could be is not answerable solely by looking to the results. Sure we can conclude that the amount spent or the nature of the messaging was not as bad as all that, but that's not the same as saying it was good or as good as it might have been. I don't know how many incremental votes would have been captured per additional dollar spent in AZ, and I don't know if it's calculable, but I will go out on a small limb and say that better messaging* would have given the Dems even better results over the range of contested races. Can I prove it? No. But I believe it. And I think it's ok to believe that while acknowledging that the messaging must have been better than I thought.*

* I have also become increasingly aware that my characterization of or conclusions about Democratic messaging are way too second hand because I see so little first hand actual "messaging" in the virtual one party Commonwealth of MA. I"m gonna try to work on that.
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by chuckrh »

Hopefully this drives a stake into the foul & evil heart of the Republican party & that whatever rises from the ashes is at least somewhat reasonable.

https://www.tampafp.com/former-presiden ... ouncement/

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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by beantownbubba »

chuckrh wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 6:31 am
Hopefully this drives a stake into the foul & evil heart of the Republican party & that whatever rises from the ashes is at least somewhat reasonable.

https://www.tampafp.com/former-presiden ... ouncement/
I don't doubt that Trump's announcement, especially following on the heels of the Red Trickle, will be a watershed moment. The question is, which way or ways will it go? One possibility is that we finally get a real third party but the lineup is soft left Dems, traditional never Trump conservatives and MAGA with or w/out Trump (and no real centrist party of the kind Andrew Yang and Christine Todd Whitman are trying to jumpstart). Which of the latter two groups keeps the title, organization and history (the party of Lincoln!) of the "Republican Party" might be an interesting fight in itself. As always when Trump is involved, it's going to be a wild ride.

The Speaker of the House election is shaping up to be an interesting development as well. Will the Dems maintain a solid wall against McCarthy, forcing him to get all 218 votes from the GOP and will he get them? What if nobody gets a majority? On the Senate side, while it seems highly unlikely, I do hope Scott replaces McConnell. McConnell is a way more formidable foe. However it goes, all of it will be part of the remaking of the Republican Party and the law of unintended consequences will no doubt play a part.

In a related development, the media seems to be noting that the media is treating Trump much more harshly this time around, with several outlets describing his announcement as the candidacy of the guy who attempted to retain power despite losing the election and fomenting an insurrection to achieve that goal, or words to that effect. One can only hope this represents a real change in the way the media covers Trump. And of course it will be very interesting to see what Fox including Hannity, Ingraham and Carlson do now that Murdoch has publicly distanced himself from Trump.
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by brettac1 »

Related to your last graph re: the media, I thought this was good:
https://www.readtpa.com/p/message-of-th ... dium=email
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by beantownbubba »

brettac1 wrote:
Wed Nov 16, 2022 12:34 pm
I thought this was good:
Agreed.
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by beantownbubba »

Is it worth it to try to parse any Trump's grammar for the "real" meaning? Probably not. Nonetheless I was intrigued by Ivanka saying that she would not be involved in politics and would not work on her father's campaign, but she "will always be proud of many of our Administration's accomplishments." I think most people would say they are proud of the many accomplishments of the Administration, so is she saying that there are some accomplishments of which she's not proud? I suspect i'm overthinking this, but it I do find it amusing.
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by beantownbubba »

What used to be is gone and what ought to be ought not to be so hard

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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by beantownbubba »

Fact: Originalism makes you stupid. These aren't all the reasons that's true, but it sure as hell makes the point. (For those who don't memorize all my posts, I"ve been saying forever that originalism is a made up fantasy w/out basis in fact, law or history.)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... 00007F7AB9
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by Zip City »

Elon Musk started a poll on Twitter to vote whether Trump should be reinstated.

You’ll never guess what happened next…
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by beantownbubba »

Zip City wrote:
Sat Nov 19, 2022 11:01 pm
Elon Musk started a poll on Twitter to vote whether Trump should be reinstated.

You’ll never guess what happened next…
Classic Trump moment in the making:

Trump vowed to post exclusively on truth social. Can he turn down access to the much larger twitter audience and the accompanying attention? Presumably not. So then what happens to truth social without trump, or even w/out trump exclusively? Wait for it... another failed Trump business.
Last edited by beantownbubba on Sun Nov 20, 2022 11:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by beantownbubba »

Virginia
Idaho
Colorado

Madness
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by tinnitus photography »

Zip City wrote:
Sat Nov 19, 2022 11:01 pm
Elon Musk started a poll on Twitter to vote whether Trump should be reinstated.

You’ll never guess what happened next…
so far he claims he's not interested
https://www.reuters.com/technology/musk ... 022-11-20/

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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by Zip City »

tinnitus photography wrote:
Sun Nov 20, 2022 11:47 am
Zip City wrote:
Sat Nov 19, 2022 11:01 pm
Elon Musk started a poll on Twitter to vote whether Trump should be reinstated.

You’ll never guess what happened next…
so far he claims he's not interested
https://www.reuters.com/technology/musk ... 022-11-20/

he's contractually tied to Truth Social on an exclusive deal. Once he figures out how to wiggle out of that contract, he'll be back
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

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lol that's terrific. you know he's dying to tweet.

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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by beantownbubba »

"the Reps will take the House but only at the level of, say, +10 and the Senate will be a matter of +/- 1 in either direction. "

I'd say I did pretty well: The House ended up 222 R to 213 D which is a difference of 9 and which represents an increase in 10 seats by the Republicans. The Senate will either remain 50/50 or be 51/49 for the Democrats.

Nice to see Judge Aileen Cannon of Mar a Lago documents fame get her comeuppance. In the context of judicial opinions, she got her ass reamed and hung out to dry by the 11th Circuit in a way virtually never seen. Totally deserved, but it's still nice to see the right outcome every once in a while. IIRC we had a brief discussion of whether she would care. I don't see how anybody could not, but then again I don't see how anyone could have made the decisions she did. I wonder if it's possible to seek recusal of a judge on the grounds of general corruption (i.e. not related to the specific case) because I don't know how anyone can try a case in front of her w/ a straight face, nor do I see how she can try to act "judicial," command respect and discharge the duties of her office in the ordinary course as if this never happened.
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by jr29 »

Anecdotally, what are some you seeing regarding inflation and its effect on folks going out and spending ?
I buy groceries and I buy gas and diesel, so I know prices are up but I don't see it reflected in people's lifestyles. I follow stock car racing and the series that I follow have seen record crowds all year. These are overwhelmingly conservative, blue collar people and they are coming out in droves. I haven't been to many shows in the last year, but I see lots of packed rooms on social media. Two of my neighbors have bought brand new cars in the past year.
I could go on, but I think ya'll get the point.
Any thoughts ?

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