The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

[beantownbubba]

In what I assume is a major departure from pretty much everyone's bingo card, Fox News actually interrupted a live broadcast of a Trump speech to say that Trump was wrong about multiple matters and "you are entitled to your own opinions but you are not entitled to your own facts." I call that a big win for Cortez and Daniel Patrick Moynihan, and at least a little win for the rest of us.

[chuckrh]

In what I assume is a major departure from pretty much everyone's bingo card, Fox News actually interrupted a live broadcast of a Trump speech to say that Trump was wrong about multiple matters and "you are entitled to your own opinions but you are not entitled to your own facts." I call that a big win for Cortez and Daniel Patrick Moynihan, and at least a little win for the rest of us.

Danger! I had a thought. What if everyone except his sheep just ignored him. Might push him over the cliff.

[beantownbubba]

But sanctions? What is left to sanction? Didn't we drop the hammer repeatedly post invasion? Didn't we kick Russia out of Swift (the global banking standard)?

WTF is left to sanction and why the hell WOULD there be something left to sanction?

I'm lost as to why any democratic-NATO-adjecent-type country would do anything with Russia. Speaking of "sanctions"...are there any, really? Where is the crippling of the Russian economy and potential collapse of currency we were all promised? Where are the good and food shortages? It's been years now of war in the Ukraine with the US throwing nearly a trillion dollars their way. That's about half the GDP of Russia. So, I'm at a total loss as to how and why we levee additional sanctions. Are they a punishment, will they deter future acts? Did our "most serious sanctions ever" previously do shit to slow or stop the invasion in Ukraine?

Andrew Ross Sorkin of the NYT attempts at least a partial answer and also explores some of the difficulties around seizing and utilizing Russian assets outside Russia. The rest is taken from Sorkin's daily newsletter:

"Even as Vladimir Putin faces new U.S. sanctions after Aleksei Navalny’s death, the Russian president emerged this week with two big corporate concessions that could strengthen his hand. Danone, the French food conglomerate, agreed to sell its Russian assets to a Putin crony, at a steep discount, while the snack maker Mondelez said it would remain in Russia.

Putin is on something of a winning streak at the two-year anniversary of the Kremlin’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite a price cap on Russian oil exports, the International Monetary Fund predicts solid growth in Russia’s gross domestic product this year. What is more, Putin can afford to play for time as he waits to see if Donald Trump wins in November, perhaps bringing warmer relations and sanctions relief.

“I have very bad news,” Alexandra Prokopenko, a Russian economist who spent years at the Central Bank in Moscow before leaving Russia in 2022, told DealBook. “For the next 12 to 18 months, Putin definitely has the money to maintain the current level of war.”

Vivienne Walt reports for DealBook on the cards that Putin holds:

He has important friends, and is making new ones. After Europe’s ban on Russian oil, Putin found eager buyers in India and China. The supply of discounted fuel is just one way that ties between Moscow and Beijing have deepened. The Chinese have also supplied Russia with key equipment to drill for natural gas in the Arctic after Western companies cut off its access to the technology. Elsewhere, Russia is relying on a shadow fleet of tankers from friendly countries to move its oil around the world, earning billions a month, according to Bloomberg data.

Many Russian professionals who fled after the invasion are returning, having found a chilly reception abroad. Meanwhile, restricted goods like semiconductors, some U.S.-sourced, arrive relatively seamlessly via a newly constructed supply chain that threads from China through the Persian Gulf countries to Turkey. “Russia has switched to a war economy early and with significant success,” Holger Schmieding, an economist at Berenberg Bank, told DealBook.

The Russian economy has been rebuilt around war. Defense and security spending makes up about 40 percent of the country’s budget, after Putin increased Russia’s military budget this year. “Russia is hooked on military steroids,” Prokopenko said.

Pain could still set in. Russians could slowly begin to feel the war’s economic toll. “Putin has enough money for continuing this war for another year,” Sergei Guriev, a Russian economist and provost of Paris’s Sciences Po university, said in an email. “After this he will have to cut nonmilitary spending, like education and health care,” he said. “At some point it will create problems for Putin.”

What it costs the West to enforce sanctions
An $82 million mansion in London’s Hampstead Heath modeled after Versailles. Villas on the French and Italian Riviera. A $325 million superyacht, the Amadea, impounded in San Diego, and artworks galore.

The value of Russian assets, including business property, seized by the West since the Kremlin invaded Ukraine is in the billions. It’s costing Western countries millions more to manage and look after the loot.

Worse still, selling off the sum of frozen Russian assets, as some countries are calling for, could create even bigger financial and legal problems.

Some U.S. officials say it is time to sell off the assets, rather than continue the expensive upkeep. This month, they petitioned a Manhattan court for permission to sell the Amadea, which is owned by a Putin crony, Suleyman Kerimov, and costs taxpayers about $600,000 per month to clean and maintain. In Britain, the authorities have estimated over $1 million in upkeep costs for the frozen Hampstead Heath property.

Some $300 billion in frozen sovereign funds are even more of a headache. They are part of Moscow’s vast investment portfolio that Western banks and financial institutions froze after the outbreak of war. The White House has called for using the funds to rebuild Ukraine.

Some European leaders think that would be a bad idea. Italy, France and Germany worry that such a move would violate international law, harm Europe’s reputation among investors and mess with international trade.

Prokopenko, the Russian economist, said: “It could undermine trust in Europe. Gulf and Asian countries have reserves in Europe. The euro would be less favorable.”

Group of 7 leaders meet this weekend virtually to discuss how to aid Ukraine. One idea is seizing the profits from Russian assets. The payoff could be big. Last year, Euroclear, a clearinghouse in Brussels holding two-thirds of the assets, made a 4.4-billion-euro profit by reinvesting matured Russian securities."

[beantownbubba]

I had a thought. What if everyone except his sheep just ignored him. Might push him over the cliff.

Ironically I think the answer to this very good question is wrapped up in "Trump Derangement Syndrome," an exaggerated but real attempt to explain the Donald's hold on the public's imagination. Love him, hate him, love to hate him, it seems everyone wants to talk about him or see what he does next. Why that is so probably has as much to do w/ PT Barnum as anything, but it does seem to be an undeniable fact.

[beantownbubba]

Just wondering: Do Trump's fundraising problems have anything to do with his target audience finally starting to realize how badly they're being ripped off? Seems unlikely, but hey, anything's possible and if there's even a little bit of truth there, the guy is in serious trouble. Once those being conned realize they're the victims of a con they tend to be pretty resentful.

[beantownbubba]

No doubt a lot has been going on lately but it strikes me that it all adds up to nothing. Just a lot of churning of the same old same old, some days better, some days worse, but none of it changing the overall state of play. But damn one could go blind reading even a small fraction of the words devoted to the various issues, sub issues and tangents. That said, some brief comments on recent developments:

So long, Mitch. We had way too long to get to know you. You as much as anybody other than Trump are responsible for the mess of a Party you're leaving behind. And we'll still have him in the Senate for another 2 years (his health willing). But for the moment nothing has changed.

On the merits, "everyone" is appropriately shocked at the Supreme Court agreeing to hear Trump's immunity claim. But what else is new? As my parents would have said, the Court is a shonda* and has been for some time. If one assumes the best, i.e. that they will eventually deny Trump's claim, then clearly they're just doing him a favor by delaying his trial. If one assumes the worst, i.e. that they're going to overrule the lower courts' decisions, well, that would be mind-blowingly, breathtakingly corrupt and a serious structural problem for the future of our constitutional system. But for the moment nothing has changed.

* Yiddish for embarrassment or shame, but not mere embarrassment or shame; more like embarrassment or shame on a grand scale, with cultural or societal implications.

I'm not going to get down into the weeds of coverage of the recent primaries. Thankfully there's been some intelligent commentary about it, although perhaps lower profile than the more typical "horse race," "Biden is in trouble," "Trump is crushing Haley" headlines. But boy, it's frustrating that so many allegedly responsible parties can be so wrong so often. But for the moment nothing has changed.

IVF? What is there to say about something so fundamentally stupid and wrong (and frighteningly anchored in religious doctrine that is clearly unconstitutional) that even Republican spokespeople are running away from the decision without, of course, acknowledging that they brought this about by bringing us the Dobbs decision. But for the moment nothing has changed except in Alabama.

[beantownbubba]

Today's newsletter from David French is, I think, a fascinating take on the growing sociopolitical divide between men and women (title: "Men are from Mercury, Women are from Neptune"). Since it's a newsletter, I can't link to it and it's too long to copy wholesale. If you subscribe to the NYT I assume you can request to be added to French's newsletter distribution. If not and you're interested pm me here or email me w/ your email address and I'll forward it to you.

[beantownbubba]

On the merits, "everyone" is appropriately shocked at the Supreme Court agreeing to hear Trump's immunity claim. But what else is new? As my parents would have said, the Court is a shonda* and has been for some time. If one assumes the best, i.e. that they will eventually deny Trump's claim, then clearly they're just doing him a favor by delaying his trial. If one assumes the worst, i.e. that they're going to overrule the lower courts' decisions, well, that would be mind-blowingly, breathtakingly corrupt and a serious structural problem for the future of our constitutional system. But for the moment nothing has changed.

As I think about it further, I think theto Court is going to take a "splitting the baby" approach: They'll rule against Trump on the merits but they'll claim that their delay in hearing the case and their further delay in ruling on it (I assume) did Trump a big favor and therefore they should still be entitled to admission to the yachts, private planes, fancy clubs, remunerative speaking engagements, etc, etc to which a number of them have become accustomed. And depending on how much they delay and how they eventually frame their ruling they're going to be right, it's just a matter of how right.

[cortez the killer]

In what I assume is a major departure from pretty much everyone's bingo card, Fox News actually interrupted a live broadcast of a Trump speech to say that Trump was wrong about multiple matters and "you are entitled to your own opinions but you are not entitled to your own facts." I call that a big win for Cortez and Daniel Patrick Moynihan, and at least a little win for the rest of us.

[Clams]

I call that a big win for Cortez

Outside of the Bantams the biggest he's had in years

[cortez the killer]

I call that a big win for Cortez

Outside of the Bantams the biggest he's had in years

[brettac1]

IVF? What is there to say about something so fundamentally stupid and wrong (and frighteningly anchored in religious doctrine that is clearly unconstitutional) that even Republican spokespeople are running away from the decision without, of course, acknowledging that they brought this about by bringing us the Dobbs decision. But for the moment nothing has changed except in Alabama.

https://open.substack.com/pub/momleft/p ... dium=email

[beantownbubba]

IVF? What is there to say about something so fundamentally stupid and wrong (and frighteningly anchored in religious doctrine that is clearly unconstitutional) that even Republican spokespeople are running away from the decision without, of course, acknowledging that they brought this about by bringing us the Dobbs decision. But for the moment nothing has changed except in Alabama.

https://open.substack.com/pub/momleft/p ... dium=email

"Animal-human hybrids??!!" Hopefully it's obvious that there is no conceivable way to counter this kind of thing with anything like rational discussion or civil debate. But perhaps it's a useful lead in to my next post...

[beantownbubba]

Just for yucks, try this 10 question civics test published by the Smithsonian. It's not particularly challenging but it can't hurt to see if anyone needs some brushing up on the basics. I wonder if people who believe that IVF is part of a plot to create animal-human hybrids could pass such a test? There isn't a direct connection between the 2 things, but I feel like it would be good to bring the focus back to relevant, true, verifiable things.

https://americanhistory.si.edu/citizenship/test

[beantownbubba]

BTW, the Supreme Court's decision in the 14th Amendment disqualification case is not surprising. The fact that it was unanimous is a little bit surprising. I have not yet had time to review the decision to try to figure out the substance of the decision, but I'm not highly motivated: It's pretty clear it's a political decision; at best it's a "practical" decision (it would certainly be chaotic if every state could decide on its own what is and is not insurrection and who is and is not qualified to be on the ballot).

But one thing the decision is not is based on originalism and textualism. Again, no surprise; the Court only relies on those things when they support their conclusion but after a while the cynical and blatant inconsistency and manipulation of legal doctrines does get wearying and frustrating and more importantly undermines the seriousness and legitimacy of the Court.

[beantownbubba]

Katie Britt apparently referred to Biden's foreign policy as a "strategy of appeasement." ‍ Not only does "appeasement" not mean what I think she thinks it means, this habit of repurposing words to suggest their opposite is another version of alternative facts and is just flat out scary. Whatever one thinks of Biden's foreign policy, it's not appeasement by any stretch of the actual meaning and history of the word.

[beantownbubba]

Hehehe. I see nothing wrong w/ kicking an asshole bully when he's down and "Ron DeSantis" is pretty much the definition of "asshole bully." I only hope the shift the article describes is actual and not just wishful thinking.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2 ... 53961d580c

[cortez the killer]

4th Alabama icon - Wallace, Bear, Ronnie & Katie.

[Clams]

4th Alabama icon - Wallace, Bear, Ronnie & Katie.

I prefer the alternate version

[pearlbeer]

4th Alabama icon - Wallace, Bear, Ronnie & Katie.

Love that they chose to feature a woman and made sure she's in the kitchen. *unfounded rumor* - she was actually barefoot during shooting. *full disclosure* I just made that up.

[beantownbubba]

she was actually barefoot during shooting. *full disclosure* I just made that up.

Maybe she wasn't barefoot but she is pregnant.

No, that's also an unfounded rumor. i just made that up. But wouldn't it be something?

[pearlbeer]

Trump takes over the RNC. Put his daughter in law in command. Fires half the staff. Forces employees to reapply, which is a thinly veiled loyalty test.

I guess I can see two sides of the coins:

Heads: Holy shit, he is destroying the Republican machinery. The inmates are running the asylum. These grifters are going to bleed it dry while feigning competence. It's pretty ballsy to trust a large part of strategy, funding and a convention to what appear to be a largely inexperienced group of loyalists.

Tails: If elected, this is exactly what he would do to the Federal Government. That's not speculation on my part. It is the open plan.



Fuck...I wish I could go into hibernation until after November. I'm buying stock in TUMS.

[beantownbubba]

I know it's fashionable, nay, even de rigueur, to be cynical or even apathetic, but I can't let this one go.

There is nothing good to say about a politician dehumanizing the other with terms like "monsters" and "animals" for perceived political advantage and it's even worse for him to actually gain political advantage among a measurable portion of the population by so doing. What the actual fuck people? How can this stand? How can we stand by? How can this guy be an actual candidate for the presidency of the United States and how can he have any possible chance of actually winning? It is beyond my comprehension.

[Jonicont]

I know it's fashionable, nay, even de rigueur, to be cynical or even apathetic, but I can't let this one go.

There is nothing good to say about a politician dehumanizing the other with terms like "monsters" and "animals" for perceived political advantage and it's even worse for him to actually gain political advantage among a measurable portion of the population by so doing. What the actual fuck people? How can this stand? How can we stand by? How can this guy be an actual candidate for the presidency of the United States and how can he have any possible chance of actually winning? It is beyond my comprehension.

All I can imagine is that we have somehow ended up in bizarro world

[cortez the killer]

I know it's fashionable, nay, even de rigueur, to be cynical or even apathetic, but I can't let this one go.

There is nothing good to say about a politician dehumanizing the other with terms like "monsters" and "animals" for perceived political advantage and it's even worse for him to actually gain political advantage among a measurable portion of the population by so doing. What the actual fuck people? How can this stand? How can we stand by? How can this guy be an actual candidate for the presidency of the United States and how can he have any possible chance of actually winning? It is beyond my comprehension.

Context, Bubba. Context! Sheesh!

[beantownbubba]

Context, Bubba. Context! Sheesh!

Sorry I thought this was being widely reported, but maybe that's part of the problem. He's been saying one version or another of it for more than a week now and that's not going back as far as his "poisoning the blood" comments.

And I left out describing immigrants as "not people." "Not people!!" I mean, "monsters" is presumably a metaphor; "animals" can be taken as a metaphor; but "not people?" That's fucking literal. And it's about as fucked up as fucked up can be. I'm not sure whether trying to justify/excuse it by saying he said it for purposes of "stirring debate" is even worse, but it's certainly no better.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/10/us/p ... rally.html

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-c ... =108212646

[beantownbubba]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/16/us/p ... dium=email

[beantownbubba]

The Supreme Court decision allowing TX to at least temporarily enforce its own state criminal law allowing its police to arrest undocumented immigrants is predictable and predictably ridiculous.

But here's the thing: If I were a betting man, I'd say we're in for a serious bout of be careful what you wish for. Because the simple fact is that TX just isn't that good at doing all the shit it brags about and insists upon doing its own way. Look at energy. Look at disaster response. Look at school shootings. Hell, look at Ted "Cancun" Cruz. Everywhere TX goes its own way, that way is almost always to the bottom.

[Flea]

The Supreme Court decision allowing TX to at least temporarily enforce its own state criminal law allowing its police to arrest undocumented immigrants is predictable and predictably ridiculous.

But here's the thing: If I were a betting man, I'd say we're in for a serious bout of be careful what you wish for. Because the simple fact is that TX just isn't that good at doing all the shit it brags about and insists upon doing its own way. Look at energy. Look at disaster response. Look at school shootings. Hell, look at Ted "Cancun" Cruz. Everywhere TX goes its own way, that way is almost always to the bottom.

I'm thinking The Wall needs to go AROUND Texas.

[brettac1]

https://open.substack.com/pub/readtpa/p ... dium=email