The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

[cortez the killer]

the need to be better prepared

More resources that are already in scant supply.

[beantownbubba]

the need to be better prepared

More resources that are already in scant supply.

Indeed. Nobody said it was going to be easy.

[beantownbubba]

If you're one of those saying that the GA case against Trump is just "piling on" or unnecessary, you're just not looking carefully enough. As has been reasonably well reported, the GA indictment includes multiple counts of racketeering under the state version of RICO, which raises the stakes and increases the odds of conviction, besides being the most accurate description of what actually happened. Also a state conviction can't be pardoned by the president should Trump or even another Republican be elected in '24.

If he wasn't before, I think Trump is now paying very close attention to the jeopardy he is in.

Also, while I don't know much about the details or nuances, it sounds like the Montana case in which the court ruled that the plaintiff children's [state] constitutional rights have been violated by Montana's continued reliance on fossil fuels and continued insistence (by statute) on not taking environmental consequences into account may well have a huge national impact going forward. Uncharted territory but I'm pretty sure the ground just shifted (or maybe the air has been cleared?)

[pearlbeer]

If you're one of those saying that the GA case against Trump is just "piling on" or unnecessary, you're just not looking carefully enough. As has been reasonably well reported, the GA indictment includes multiple counts of racketeering under the state version of RICO, which raises the stakes and increases the odds of conviction, besides being the most accurate description of what actually happened. Also a state conviction can't be pardoned by the president should Trump or even another Republican be elected in '24.

It's pretty ugly. Interesting that about half of the co-conspirators are relatively or completely unknown. The trail goes from T*ump all the way to the foot soldiers that did the intimidating. Set up for a clear RICO case.

Funny how the man that may have the most success with RICO cases (IIRC Giuliani took down 5 families) is now tied up in them.

I'm torn between watching intently while eating a big tub of popcorn and just being really sad. It is a dark day for the nation. We are much better than this. (I think so?)

[Zip City]

30 un-indicted co-conspirators means a bunch of people flipped (looking at you, Lin Wood)

[whatwouldcooleydo?]

[chuckrh]

[beantownbubba]

Fascinating on multiple levels:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/17/us/p ... ategy.html

I don't know if there's enough here for, say, a PhD dissertation, but an undergraduate senior looking for an honors thesis topic might find a lot to work with here.

[pearlbeer]

I don't know if there's enough here for, say, a PhD dissertation, but an undergraduate senior looking for an honors thesis topic might find a lot to work with here.

I think you are VASTLY underestimating the average age here at 3DD, btb.

[beantownbubba]

I don't know if there's enough here for, say, a PhD dissertation, but an undergraduate senior looking for an honors thesis topic might find a lot to work with here.

I think you are VASTLY underestimating the average age here at 3DD, btb.

LOL, I meant it more as a kind of "rating system" than as a pitch to anybody in particular. Something like "it's pretty interesting, puts a lot of academic chatter/speculation into a very realistic context and would allow a writer to throw in a lot of undergraduate level reading/theory but it's not so new, different and meaty that it would support a full on dissertation." Or put another way, "well worth reading, grounded in real time reality and not at all offputtingly technical or obscure."

Besides, it's never too late to put a few more initials after your (the general your, not you specifically pb) name. Come on, make your mama proud.

[beantownbubba]

Jennifer Rubin's weekly newsletter included some interesting thoughts about the upcoming televised Republican presidential debate. In short, the leverage is in all the wrong places: Trump won't show so won't have to "take the pledge" to support the eventual nominee, while all the others will have committed, over a year in advance, to supporting Trump if he's the nominee. That's awkward for many reasons, among them that sooner or later some of them will realize that the only way to wrest the nomination from Trump is to walk (run?) away from him, yet they'll still be stuck having committed to supporting him, undercutting their credibility considerably. Also, without Trump's endorsement, how much chance does an unlikely other nominee have (or worse, what will they have to bargain away to secure Trump's support)? The puzzle pieces, spins and implications go on and on but the bottom line is that the GOP has already shot itself in the foot, or maybe both feet, before a single debater takes the stage.

If you haven't yet, I urge you to read the DeSantis strategy article I linked to above. It's interesting and instructive on its own, but it also fits nicely into this sort of speculation/gaming, i.e. how does a Republican candidate deal w/ the Trump "elephant" and (a) win the nomination while (b) positioning themselves to have a reasonable shot in the general election?

Has anyone else noted what seems to be a significant change in tone from conservative anti-Trumpers? It seems like more and more, they are not just saying that Trump should not be president for a variety of reasons but that he is in fact guilty of at least some of the counts in one or more of the indictments. I don't know that any columnist has the power to actually sway voters, but to the extent that their views reflect their demographic, this might be important (if it's even true; my personal "survey" is fairly random).

Also, before and immediately after the GA indictments came down, there was a lot of negative press about it: it's overkill, it confuses the issues, it's too broad, etc etc. But it seems like in the last day or so many more pundits have come around to the idea that this particular indictment was both necessary and perhaps the most dangerous to Trump because it fully captures the scope and flavor of what he actually did (plus side benefits like a conviction not being pardonable, etc). Again this is my personal random "survey" not a scientific poll but I feel like something has definitely changed.

Edited once to change "appealable" to "pardonable." Whoops.

[beantownbubba]

A combined five hundred thousand casualties in the Ukraine war. From the NYT:

"Russia’s military casualties, the officials said, are approaching 300,000. The number includes as many as 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 injured troops. The Russian numbers dwarf the Ukrainian figures, which the officials put at close to 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded."

These are staggering numbers. Truly insane. In the end I suppose it's a measure of Putin's continuing hold on power.

[whatwouldcooleydo?]

Don’t get a Sizzler reference every day

[beantownbubba]

Perhaps that provides some insight into why/how George Santos remains a congressman. Lying about credentials/achievements seems to have moved from scandal to kerfuffle to business as usual.

[beantownbubba]

So the freedom caucus is back at it, making all kinds of threats and posturing away. September should be...interesting. It's very wearing. It's tiresome to be here again/still but I am curious about whether Kevin McCarthy's speakership will survive the machinations. Right now, it's hard for me to see how he might hang on but the guy is a survivor so we'll see.

[whatwouldcooleydo?]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66599733

[chuckrh]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66599733

Does Trump fly a private jet ? Just curious.....

[pearlbeer]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/you-can-b ... ounty-jail

$25. I took the under. Either way, he is a fat orange fuck.

[beantownbubba]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66599733

I don't understand the hubris that would lead Prigozhin to believe he could travel around Russia w/out consequence, but OTOH, was it really necessary to take out NINE other people, too? Absolute power corrupts absolutely.

[tinnitus photography]

Ask your dictator about treatment options for Prigozhin.

[beantownbubba]

I didn't watch the debate last nite, did you? Sounds like it went about like expected though I have to say that Ramaswamy comes across as a real asshole (again, based on what I've read, not watched). DeSantis seems to be rapidly fading and I suspect his fundraising is about to seriously nosedive.

Abortion is a snakepit for politicians, that's a given. But what I don't understand that if you're a Republican who thinks abortion should be available in some cases but you don't want to alienate the anti-abortion crowd, why wouldn't you fall back on "leave it to the states," which was the Republican position until, I don't know, last month or so. In the current environment that seems like a reasonably safe place to be while supporting a national ban seems like just giving in to huge, inevitable general election hurdles.

[tinnitus photography]

I didn't watch the debate last nite, did you? Sounds like it went about like expected though I have to say that Ramaswamy comes across as a real asshole (again, based on what I've read, not watched). DeSantis seems to be rapidly fading and I suspect his fundraising is about to seriously nosedive.

Abortion is a snakepit for politicians, that's a given. But what I don't understand that if you're a Republican who thinks abortion should be available in some cases but you don't want to alienate the anti-abortion crowd, why wouldn't you fall back on "leave it to the states," which was the Republican position until, I don't know, last month or so. In the current environment that seems like a reasonably safe place to be while supporting a national ban seems like just giving in to huge, inevitable general election hurdles.

that's what Haley did.

against my better judgement i did watch that flaming dumpster. Ramaswamy is a total asshole. I forgot Pence is running, that guy has zero chance. Christie is about the only slightly tolerable one.

[Clams]

I didn't watch the debate last nite, did you? Sounds like it went about like expected though I have to say that Ramaswamy comes across as a real asshole (again, based on what I've read, not watched). DeSantis seems to be rapidly fading and I suspect his fundraising is about to seriously nosedive.

Abortion is a snakepit for politicians, that's a given. But what I don't understand that if you're a Republican who thinks abortion should be available in some cases but you don't want to alienate the anti-abortion crowd, why wouldn't you fall back on "leave it to the states," which was the Republican position until, I don't know, last month or so. In the current environment that seems like a reasonably safe place to be while supporting a national ban seems like just giving in to huge, inevitable general election hurdles.

that's what Haley did.

against my better judgement i did watch that flaming dumpster. Ramaswamy is a total asshole. I forgot Pence is running, that guy has zero chance. Christie is about the only slightly tolerable one.

They all tried to be too aggressive and talked too forcefully and too fast. I actually liked most of what Nikki Haley had to say and I wouldn't mind seeing a woman as President. That said, none of them, including Haley, has any chance.

[tinnitus photography]

Haley might be a running mate choice for the flaming asshole.

[chuckrh]

Haley might be a running mate choice for the flaming asshole.

She's trouble. I personally witnessed her in action with corporate USA. I can't get into specifics because of the NDA I had to sign when I retired.

[beantownbubba]

Haley might be a running mate choice for the flaming asshole.

,

There is a school of thought that says all of the pretenders are running to secure either a VP nod or a cabinet post in a Trump administration. There must be at least some truth to that w/ respect to at least some of the candidates, but I can't say how true or which candidates. That strategy makes more sense to me than any of them running believing they can win.

I have serious problems w/ Haley but there's no doubt that she could be a formidable presence/opponent either as VP nominee or if by some crazy series of events she becomes the presidential candidate.

[beantownbubba]

Haley might be a running mate choice for the flaming asshole.

She's trouble. I personally witnessed her in action with corporate USA. I can't get into specifics because of the NDA I had to sign when I retired.

I get that there are limits on what you can say, but at least to me, "she's trouble" is very ambiguous and vague. I don't understand what kind of trouble or for whom. Are you saying she's tough and/or formidable? Are you saying she's a liar or unreliable or has no loyalty? Or something else entirely?

[chuckrh]

Haley might be a running mate choice for the flaming asshole.

She's trouble. I personally witnessed her in action with corporate USA. I can't get into specifics because of the NDA I had to sign when I retired.

I get that there are limits on what you can say, but at least to me, "she's trouble" is very ambiguous and vague. I don't understand what kind of trouble or for whom. Are you saying she's tough and/or formidable? Are you saying she's a liar or unreliable or has no loyalty? Or something else entirely?

Liar & unreliable covers a lot of it though not entirely

[Zip City]

Ramaswamy has the distinction of having the worst opinions, the worst policy ideas, and the worst personality. Naturally, Trumpers love him

[pearlbeer]

Some random thoughts on recent events:

1) I'm laughing at the (sadly successful) merchandising of Trump's Mug Shot. "Never Surrender" plastered under a guy that is quite literally, surrendering in the photograph.

2) Also find it Alanis-level ironic that most of the big dogs are auguring to have their trials moved to Federal Court. Wouldn't this be moving the trial into the "Deep State" itself?

3) I can't imagine it will be possible to hold Trump to the commitment of his "gag order". I don't know what an ACTUAL enforcement mechanism would be other than maybe increasing his bail. Just seems like enforcement would open a big 1st Amendment/political candidate can of worm. Plus, I'd bet the more he is allowed to talk, the more damage he does to himself.

4) I mean, Shirley, by now the Rs are regretting not convicting him for the 2nd impeachment. Even if they just disqualified him from office, they would be out of this mess. He clearly isn't going away. It's abundantly clear that he could give two shits about the party, or anything other than himself. He did his best to steal attention away from and fuck up their first debate. If he goes down, he's going to take everything with him. Fuck them, they deserve it.

5) What is the Dem strategy in all of this? Seems to be stay back and hope the snake eats itself. But, at some point they are going to need to go on the offensive. I hope they sink low at some point and start name calling. Show him in particular for who he is. Sore loser, whiny, blame-machine, baby. I know it wouldn't do much, but I think it could help some of the fence-sitters that "like his policies but dont like him" to switch.