The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

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beantownbubba
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by beantownbubba »

I've noticed that economic policy doesn't get much traction around here, but FWIW, from earlier today on FB:

So let me see if I have this straight, and please correct me if I'm wrong because I really don't get this. Markets are concerned about the economic effects of the Cvirus. They look to the Fed for reassurance and the Fed responds, first verbally and then by cutting rates a whopping 1/2 percent (that's not sarcastic; that's a very large cut when rates were at 1.5% to start with).

But why and how is that supposed to help the economy? Isn't the purpose of a rate cut to stimulate borrowing and investment by businesses? If you're a CEO/CFO and you're learning that your components and/or end products from China are backed up for weeks already and probably will be for months or you're thinking that your customers are going to stop traveling/shopping/going to the movies/whatever, or if you are worried that your foreign markets including important developed economies like Italy will be closed to you or will experience steep declines for an indefinite time, what exactly are you supposed to invest in?

Seriously, I'd like to know what the logic is here. And let's remember that rates were at 1.5% to begin with in part because business investment was already sluggish..

The good news, if I'm right, is that Trump's call for a rate cut will prove to be as ineffective and incompetent as the rest of his response to the Cvirus. Whether that matters is of course an open question because, you know, Obama. Or maybe it's Hillary's emails, I forget.

[Follow on post:] What a coincidence. Just appearing on my news feed as I was typing the above, from the NYT: "Stocks and bond yields tumbled, suggesting investors think the Fed's interest rate cut won't contain the economic impact of the coronavirus."
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cortez the killer
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by cortez the killer »

Iowan wrote:
cortez the killer wrote:
Iowan wrote:I'm starting to think Liz is our only remaining hope.
:?
Biden has Ukraine. Bernie has "Communist". Warren only has Pocahontas, which after getting one of those stupid 23 and Me things for Christmas, becomes a hell of a lot easier to explain.

I think (perhaps naively) that she's progressive enough to satisfy the Bernie camp, but not so far left that the "Communist" meme will stick to her (outside of people who weren't going to vote for a Democrat anyway). It seems like her political chops and ability to "take a punch" have improved through the process. I don't know if anyone has a chance to beat Trump at this point, but she's got the least baggage to me.
To call her cringeworthy is a massive understatement. I mean, she came in fuckin' 3rd place tonight in her home fuckin' state!!! The gig's up, Liz. Time to drop out.

Tomorrow morning, in the fields of green, maybe we can find out how she felt.

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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by blessedcurse »

From north of the Border, I think I can speak as a global citizen and state my sense of frustration and resignation to the 'moderates' of the democratic party for aligning with a candidate that can barely string two sensical thoughts together. Trump will mop the floor with the rag doll. No vision, no courage. no guts, no glory. 4 more years now appears to be a certainty. Patterson once said that 'History is made by the side of the road. By the men and women who can persevere'. The democrats want to drive straight down the middle. Good luck and godspeed to us all!
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by phungi »

blessedcurse wrote:From north of the Border, I think I can speak as a global citizen and state my sense of frustration and resignation to the 'moderates' of the democratic party for aligning with a candidate that can barely string two sensical thoughts together. Trump will mop the floor with the rag doll. No vision, no courage. no guts, no glory. 4 more years now appears to be a certainty. Patterson once said that 'History is made by the side of the road. By the men and women who can persevere'. The democrats want to drive straight down the middle. Good luck and godspeed to us all!
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by Iowan »

cortez the killer wrote:
Iowan wrote:
cortez the killer wrote: To call her cringeworthy is a massive understatement. I mean, she came in fuckin' 3rd place tonight in her home fuckin' state!!! The gig's up, Liz. Time to drop out.

Tomorrow morning, in the fields of green, maybe we can find out how she felt.

Marlon Brando, Pocahontas and me.
I don't really have an argument here other than I think Biden and Bernie have been even more cringe-worthy at times.

I think the writing's on the wall for Liz, as you say. I guess it all just speaks to the bleakness of the current situation.

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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by Tequila Cowboy »

blessedcurse wrote:From north of the Border, I think I can speak as a global citizen and state my sense of frustration and resignation to the 'moderates' of the democratic party for aligning with a candidate that can barely string two sensical thoughts together. Trump will mop the floor with the rag doll. No vision, no courage. no guts, no glory. 4 more years now appears to be a certainty. Patterson once said that 'History is made by the side of the road. By the men and women who can persevere'. The democrats want to drive straight down the middle. Good luck and godspeed to us all!
I wouldn't hand Trump the election so fast. Biden comes with risk but the main reason Clinton lost in 2016 was that African-Americans didn't show up at the polls. In contrast they came out in record numbers for Biden yesterday. My ideology aligns more closely with Bernie, but I reluctantly admit that Biden is likely more electable against Trump. Clinton lost by a grand total of 76,000 votes over three states despite Trump racking up smaller vote totals than Mitt Romney in 2012. If African-Americans come back to vote in 2020 they'll hand Trump a defeat.
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cortez the killer
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by cortez the killer »

Tequila Cowboy wrote:
blessedcurse wrote:From north of the Border, I think I can speak as a global citizen and state my sense of frustration and resignation to the 'moderates' of the democratic party for aligning with a candidate that can barely string two sensical thoughts together. Trump will mop the floor with the rag doll. No vision, no courage. no guts, no glory. 4 more years now appears to be a certainty. Patterson once said that 'History is made by the side of the road. By the men and women who can persevere'. The democrats want to drive straight down the middle. Good luck and godspeed to us all!
I wouldn't hand Trump the election so fast. Biden comes with risk but the main reason Clinton lost in 2016 was that African-Americans didn't show up at the polls. In contrast they came out in record numbers for Biden yesterday. My ideology aligns more closely with Bernie, but I reluctantly admit that Biden is likely more electable against Trump. Clinton lost by a grand total of 76,000 votes over three states despite Trump racking up smaller vote totals than Mitt Romney in 2012. If African-Americans come back to vote in 2020 they'll hand Trump a defeat.
Image
Don't overlook his ability to connect with blue-collar voters who flipped to Trump in 2016. I'm thinking about Pennsylvania, specifically.
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cortez the killer
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by cortez the killer »

Iowan wrote:
I don't really have an argument here other than I think Biden and Bernie have been even more cringe-worthy at times.

I think the writing's on the wall for Liz, as you say. I guess it all just speaks to the bleakness of the current situation.

I wonder if Bruce will decide to live on the edge and have a beer when she drops out.
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by Iowan »

cortez the killer wrote:
Tequila Cowboy wrote:
blessedcurse wrote:From north of the Border, I think I can speak as a global citizen and state my sense of frustration and resignation to the 'moderates' of the democratic party for aligning with a candidate that can barely string two sensical thoughts together. Trump will mop the floor with the rag doll. No vision, no courage. no guts, no glory. 4 more years now appears to be a certainty. Patterson once said that 'History is made by the side of the road. By the men and women who can persevere'. The democrats want to drive straight down the middle. Good luck and godspeed to us all!
I wouldn't hand Trump the election so fast. Biden comes with risk but the main reason Clinton lost in 2016 was that African-Americans didn't show up at the polls. In contrast they came out in record numbers for Biden yesterday. My ideology aligns more closely with Bernie, but I reluctantly admit that Biden is likely more electable against Trump. Clinton lost by a grand total of 76,000 votes over three states despite Trump racking up smaller vote totals than Mitt Romney in 2012. If African-Americans come back to vote in 2020 they'll hand Trump a defeat.
Image
Don't overlook his ability to connect with blue-collar voters who flipped to Trump in 2016. I'm thinking about Pennsylvania, specifically.
I follow IAFF on Facebook (I'm a volunteer firefighter) and they've been big-time Biden guys all along, which I found to be a bit futile - especially after the Iowa caucus. In my county, which had the biggest Obama to Trump flip in the country between 2012 and 2016 (each won by 8 points, so 16 point swing), Biden had very little traction. Pete and Amy walked away with it.

That said, our caucus was made up of basically your most active Dems, and those blue collar guys who flipped Trump weren't necessarily represented there. These were people who (almost) always vote for Democrats. People talk about Iowa becoming a red state because Trump had a runaway victory in '16 (keep in mind 75% of our reps in the House are Democrats), but what they don't talk about is how he had fewer votes than Obama did in 2012, and FAR less votes than Obama in 2008. It was more of an anti-Clinton referendum than anything.

I think that lesson may apply to any state that's been on both sides of the R/D coin over the years that went Trump in '16. Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania. I may also be trying to talk myself into seeing any path that dethrones Trump.

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cortez the killer
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by cortez the killer »

Iowan wrote:
cortez the killer wrote:
Tequila Cowboy wrote: I wouldn't hand Trump the election so fast. Biden comes with risk but the main reason Clinton lost in 2016 was that African-Americans didn't show up at the polls. In contrast they came out in record numbers for Biden yesterday. My ideology aligns more closely with Bernie, but I reluctantly admit that Biden is likely more electable against Trump. Clinton lost by a grand total of 76,000 votes over three states despite Trump racking up smaller vote totals than Mitt Romney in 2012. If African-Americans come back to vote in 2020 they'll hand Trump a defeat.
Image
Don't overlook his ability to connect with blue-collar voters who flipped to Trump in 2016. I'm thinking about Pennsylvania, specifically.
I follow IAFF on Facebook (I'm a volunteer firefighter) and they've been big-time Biden guys all along, which I found to be a bit futile - especially after the Iowa caucus. In my county, which had the biggest Obama to Trump flip in the country between 2012 and 2016 (each won by 8 points, so 16 point swing), Biden had very little traction. Pete and Amy walked away with it.

That said, our caucus was made up of basically your most active Dems, and those blue collar guys who flipped Trump weren't necessarily represented there. These were people who (almost) always vote for Democrats. People talk about Iowa becoming a red state because Trump had a runaway victory in '16 (keep in mind 75% of our reps in the House are Democrats), but what they don't talk about is how he had fewer votes than Obama did in 2012, and FAR less votes than Obama in 2008. It was more of an anti-Clinton referendum than anything.

I think that lesson may apply to any state that's been on both sides of the R/D coin over the years that went Trump in '16. Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania. I may also be trying to talk myself into seeing any path that dethrones Trump.
Listen, I'm not a big Biden guy, but, in my amateur opinion, he is the best remaining option to take down Trump. If The Bern gets the nomination, then I'm #teambernie. However, I think Biden is the best candidate to defeat the Orange Asshole. The dyed-in-the-wool Dems will/should/better vote for whoever secures the nomination (whether they believe it was done the "right way" or not). Biden doesn't get the hairs standing up on my neck, but he does bring the black vote out and he has traction with the more moderate Dems & Reps, which will play a role in pulling the purple regions back into the blue. I see Bernie exciting the base, but struggling to build a coalition with black and moderate voters. In my opinion, this is not a winning formula in an Electorial College election.
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cortez the killer
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by cortez the killer »

blessedcurse wrote:From north of the Border, I think I can speak as a global citizen and state my sense of frustration and resignation to the 'moderates' of the democratic party for aligning with a candidate that can barely string two sensical thoughts together. Trump will mop the floor with the rag doll. No vision, no courage. no guts, no glory.
You are looking at this too sanely and rationally. The current situation in the United States is mind-numbingly polarized. This election will not be won or lost on how well you perform in debates. This isn't about courage, vision or guts or glory. It is all about identity politics.

"Obama trusted Joe, so he has my vote."

"The Dems are coming to take my guns, I'm with Trump."

"I can't fucking stand Trump, but there's no way I'm voting for a Goddamn Socialist!"

"Yeah, Trump is a piece of shit of a human being, but my mortgage rates are low and my 401K keeps growing and growing."

You could go on and on with statement after statement.

Under "normal" or more traditional circumstances, I'm with you blessed. However, we are in a crisis, and the candidate that can swing the highest number of the pendulum voters and bring out the highest number of disenfranchised folks (in this country a.k.a. as the black community) is the strongest candidate the Democrats can wheel out for this one. From my way of thinking, it's Joe. He may not be the hero we wanted, but he's the hero we need.
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by blessedcurse »

Well, I'll defer to CK, Iowan and TC and their on-the ground-analyses. My sincere gratitude for bringing me back from the brink and do hope that y'all are right about this. I did notice a number of t-shirts and lawn signs proclaiming : "Literally anybody else 2020" while in Georgie last month. I'd rather be underwhelmed than pissed off, fearful and discouraged. Up here in the land of wide open spaces and 35 million folks +/-, we enjoy 5 political parties. Seems to me the US could use a little more of that diversity in its political options.

Oh,and Phungi, we'll keep the trophies/medals in the room, but we will make sure they are nicely displayed!
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by Rags »

cortez the killer wrote:
Iowan wrote:
I don't really have an argument here other than I think Biden and Bernie have been even more cringe-worthy at times.

I think the writing's on the wall for Liz, as you say. I guess it all just speaks to the bleakness of the current situation.

I wonder if Bruce will decide to live on the edge and have a beer when she drops out.
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by LBRod »

blessedcurse wrote: Up here in the land of wide open spaces and 35 million folks +/-, we enjoy 5 political parties. Seems to me the US could use a little more of that diversity in its political options.
Amen.
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by Tequila Cowboy »

LBRod wrote:
blessedcurse wrote: Up here in the land of wide open spaces and 35 million folks +/-, we enjoy 5 political parties. Seems to me the US could use a little more of that diversity in its political options.
Amen.
When the social contract is strong a weak executive, presidential form of government is fine ( believe it or not that’s our system) but when the social contract is unstable a parliamentary system is preferable. Since the weak executive system is held up almost entirely by mutually accepted norms it’s easy to exploit when those norms are ignored.
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by beantownbubba »

Whoops. Actual intended post below.
Last edited by beantownbubba on Thu Mar 05, 2020 1:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by beantownbubba »

Tequila Cowboy wrote:When the social contract is strong a weak executive, presidential form of government is fine ( believe it or not that’s our system)
I'm not too sure about this. At the very least I'd say it's overstated. One version of the history of the US since 1860 is that it has been a battle over or search for just how powerful the executive is/should be. I think most would say that whatever the sweet spot may be, "weak" as it was understood in the 19th century is not even on the table any more.
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by LBRod »

beantownbubba wrote:
Tequila Cowboy wrote:When the social contract is strong a weak executive, presidential form of government is fine ( believe it or not that’s our system)
I'm not too sure about this. At the very least I'd say it's overstated. One version of the history of the US since 1860 is that it has been a battle over or search for just how powerful the executive is/should be. I think most would say that whatever the sweet spot may be, "weak" as it was understood in the 19th century is not even on the table any more.
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by Tequila Cowboy »

beantownbubba wrote:
Tequila Cowboy wrote:When the social contract is strong a weak executive, presidential form of government is fine ( believe it or not that’s our system)
I'm not too sure about this. At the very least I'd say it's overstated. One version of the history of the US since 1860 is that it has been a battle over or search for just how powerful the executive is/should be. I think most would say that whatever the sweet spot may be, "weak" as it was understood in the 19th century is not even on the table any more.
“Weak executive” is the form. Of course it’s morphed and changed. It’s not all Trump either. Clinton, W and Obama each took a bigger piece of the pie. In a Parliamentary system the executive is fixed more ore less. While that form of government is far from perfect but it doesn’t depend on norms. Our norms have been trampled to the point of meaningless.
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by Zip City »

https://mobile.twitter.com/thedailybeas ... 2388370433

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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by Flea »

LBRod wrote:
beantownbubba wrote:
Tequila Cowboy wrote:When the social contract is strong a weak executive, presidential form of government is fine ( believe it or not that’s our system)
I'm not too sure about this. At the very least I'd say it's overstated. One version of the history of the US since 1860 is that it has been a battle over or search for just how powerful the executive is/should be. I think most would say that whatever the sweet spot may be, "weak" as it was understood in the 19th century is not even on the table any more.
When congress fails to do their job, the executive gains power.
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by beantownbubba »

Tequila Cowboy wrote:It’s not all Trump either. Clinton, W and Obama each took a bigger piece of the pie. In a Parliamentary system the executive is fixed more ore less. While that form of government is far from perfect but it doesn’t depend on norms.
Definitely all trump, or clinton or obama either. Like I said, it's been going on since at least 1860.

I'm not sure our friends in the UK would agree with you (and I mean that literally, I don't know) about the lack of norms in parliamentary systems. IIRC before and after Boris did whatever he did in September (suspending parliament in a very specific way) there was a lot of talk about how norms were being broken on a regular basis and the parliamentary system would never be the same.
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by Flea »

Hey Bubba, I would love your thoughts on this:

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/202 ... etter.html
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by beantownbubba »

Flea wrote:Hey Bubba, I would love your thoughts on this:

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/202 ... etter.html
I'm not sure what to make of it. I agree w/ the substance of it pretty much 100%. As a personal gesture, I get it. We all have limited tools to convey publicly our displeasure and disagreement and his withdrawal from the SCt bar probably is the most impactful gesture or symbol he can make though it is of no practical effect even to him (I believe he is retired). It is unusual enough that it will probably gain some attention and in that way generate some thought and discussion but it's hard to predict how that will play out.

In the big picture I don't see it making any difference to the Chief Justice, any of the other Justices or the decisions they make. It is evidence of the loss of legitimacy the Court is facing because of its politicization and the manipulation of its membership but it's hard to see how it will change or even slow that 'delegitimizing process. The writer is also caught in a bit of a catch-22. Because he is directly addressing politicization, the letter is inherently political and even though he tries to frame it as a more general appeal to higher principles those who are so inclined will find it easy to dismiss its message as "merely" political.

Reservations about impact aside, let me repeat that the substance is imho accurate and pointed.
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by LBRod »

beantownbubba wrote:
Flea wrote:Hey Bubba, I would love your thoughts on this:

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/202 ... etter.html
I'm not sure what to make of it. I agree w/ the substance of it pretty much 100%. As a personal gesture, I get it. We all have limited tools to convey publicly our displeasure and disagreement and his withdrawal from the SCt bar probably is the most impactful gesture or symbol he can make though it is of no practical effect even to him (I believe he is retired). It is unusual enough that it will probably gain some attention and in that way generate some thought and discussion but it's hard to predict how that will play out.

In the big picture I don't see it making any difference to the Chief Justice, any of the other Justices or the decisions they make. It is evidence of the loss of legitimacy the Court is facing because of its politicization and the manipulation of its membership but it's hard to see how it will change or even slow that 'delegitimizing process. The writer is also caught in a bit of a catch-22. Because he is directly addressing politicization, the letter is inherently political and even though he tries to frame it as a more general appeal to higher principles those who are so inclined will find it easy to dismiss its message as "merely" political.

Reservations about impact aside, let me repeat that the substance is imho accurate and pointed.
It's a good rant, but I wish it were more specific. He could have listed some cases that he felt were politicized.
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by beantownbubba »

LBRod wrote:It's a good rant, but I wish it were more specific. He could have listed some cases that he felt were politicized.
I think he did that intentionally. I'm not totally sure why but the 2 most likely explanations are that he either wanted to make the letter suitable for general public consumption or he wanted to avoid getting into an argument(s) about specific fine points of law in which the larger point got lost. I think he hit what he was aiming for but you raise a good question about whether it was the right target. I don't have a good answer to that.
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by LBRod »

How can I possibly agree with his rant without knowing the particulars of his disagreements with the court's decisions?
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by cortez the killer »

Question for the Libertarians. What do you think the government should do in the time of a pandemic? Are you opposed to authorities ordering the closing of schools, businesses, bars, restaurants, etc?
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Re: The Neverending Thread for Political Shit

Post by beantownbubba »

LBRod wrote:How can I possibly agree with his rant without knowing the particulars of his disagreements with the court's decisions?
Taken literally, his letter is addressed to the Court. They surely know what he's referring to. There is also this, which refers to specific cases in a general way. One of the references is clearly to Citizens United; I recognize a couple of the others w/out immediately having their case names at the tip of my fingers.

"The ideas of free speech and religious liberty have been transmogrified to allow officially sanctioned bigotry and discrimination, as well as to elevate the grossest forms of political bribery beyond the ability of the federal government or states to rationally regulate it. More than a score of decisions during your tenure have overturned established precedents—some more than forty years old– and you voted with the majority in most."

Should you want to do the work you can probably figure out what these cases are. But again, I don't think you (or me) are the audience he's playing to.
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